Trade Deadline Values: Jesus Montero vs. Wilmer Flores

While this piece might have been a hotter topic a couple of weeks ago before Cliff Lee was dealt to Texas and the Mets seemingly fell out of contention, both Jesus Montero and Wilmer Flores became key names in internet trade banter.  While both prospects are excellent in their own right, it’s important for New York baseball fans, as well as prospect fans in general to distinguish between the two.  In ranking the top-25 prospects I’ve seen since starting Scouting the Sally, Montero ranks 3rd, while Flores currently sits 8th.  On paper, this is not a major difference, but in reality, if Montero were an “A” prospect, then Flores would likely be a “B+”.

When I saw Montero late in the 2008 season, he immediately struck me as an impact talent offensively and I said as much when I wrote him up for my previous site shortly after.

With his advanced hitting approach and repeatable swing mechanics, I can see him competing for batting titles. At 18, he has time to learn how to add backspin, but his line drive power should allow him to hit 25-30 home runs annually even if he doesn’t. After watching both Montero and Jason Heyward play, I’m convinced Montero is a better pure hitter at this point while Heyward remains a better all-around prospect because of his defensive ability.

The one question prospect people had about Montero was how he would react to adversity because he had really never struggled in his short, but extremely productive career. After a slow start in 2010, I think we have our answer as his .371/.481/.645 July line has been truly dominant.

Yes, Montero has little defensive ability and will likely end up as a 1B/DH, but impact bats like this simply do not come around often.  To see a comparable talent in 2009, I had to travel to Jacksonville to see Marlins outfielder Mike Stanton.

As for Wilmer Flores, he’s an excellent prospect in his own right.  In a June piece, I wrote;

At this point, I have seen upwards of 300 Wilmer Flores plate appearances and continue to be impressed by his offensive abilities and unheralded defensive prowess. His overall stat line is tremendous when considering his age and the level of competition and he saves his best at bats for highly ranked prospects. This season alone, I have witnessed him take excellent swings off of Braves prospect Arodys Vizcaino, Astros prospect Tanner Bushue, Rockies prospect Tyler Matzek and others.

While Flores provides more defensive ability than Montero and his contact skills were better at the same level, Flores doesn’t have the thunder in his bat that Montero did, nor does he have as good an approach.  This leaves Flores with significantly more room for varied outcomes than Montero has.  I’m 100% sure Montero will mash.  I’m only about 70% sure Flores will.

Of course there are no sure things in baseball as the failure rate of even the best prospects is very high.  However, the value of a player with both a high ceiling and floor like Montero is exponentially more valuable than very good, or even excellent prospects.  If I were the Mets, I’d consider dealing Wilmer Flores in the right package for a top starter.  Jesus Montero? He would be untouchable in my mind.

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