An Advanced Look At Gio Gonzalez
Full disclosure: I’m an avid A’s fan. I’ve been one for the entirety of my adult life. The current state state of both the A’s ownership and stadium situation is seemingly hampering spending on free agents. Given the inability to bring in Major League ready talent via signings, the A’s are forced to trades, drafts, and International Free Agents. At the time of writing, I would like to see the front office fire sale anyone with value and build towards our eventual move to San Jose.
Imagine yourself as a Major League General Manager. The moves and calls are yours to make and take. The burden of responsibility to your owner, your ballplayers, and your fans constantly weighs on your mind. You know your team. You feel like you’re strong starting pitcher from running away from the pack of your division and clinching that ever coveted playoff spot. You don’t have any satisfactory internal options, so you send out calls to other teams.
Same as everyone else, you’ve heard that Gio Gonzalez is available, or at least Billy Beane is taking calls on him. A potential deal with the Marlins has seemingly fallen through and now you have a chance to ask about Gio. Before you do, what exactly would you be getting? He’s a 5′ 11″ left hander that brings his 4-seamer in at an average 92.5 and a devastating curveball that buckles knees and puzzles aerospace engineers. He mixes in a 2-seamer with effective sink and has shown flashes of a developing change-up.
| IP | 4-Seam% | 2-Seam% | Change% | Curve% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 98.2 | 61.5% | 2.2% | 6.9% | 29.4% |
| 2010 | 200.1 | 45.7% | 29.6% | 5.6% | 19.1% |
| 2011 | 202 | 30.9% | 34.1% | 7.1% | 27.9% |
What we’re seeing is data to backup the assumption that pitchers develop and mature. Gio has gone to his fastball less and less and, as of 2011, has grown into a very strong blend of fastballs, 2-seamers, curves and sporadic change-ups. Thus far, this stronger mix of pitches has been to Gonzalez’ benefit. Observe the table below.
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | K% | BB% | MLB Avg K%¹ |
MLB Avg BB% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 5.75 | 4.47 | 3.96 | 24.0% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 8.9% |
| 2010 | 3.23 | 3.78 | 4.04 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 8.5% |
| 2011 | 3.12 | 3.64 | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 8.1% |
¹The MLB average is derived from both starters and relievers for K% and BB%
Ignoring ERA (I only included to because FIP and xFIP are measured on the same scale) you see that Gio’s FIP has been remarkably consistent. His K% has fluctuated but it does average out to what he accomplished this year. You’ll also note the slightly falling BB%. If Gio can manage just another small incremental reduction in walks, he’ll be below the 10% threshold and getting close to a league average rate. Gio already induces plenty of ground balls, with a 2011 rate that actually matches his career rate of 47.5%. The league average GB% was 43.2%. No work needs to be done there.
Like any sensible GM, you’d like to know what exactly is causing all these strikeouts and possibly all these walks. Thank goodness that in this day in age we have the ability to see.
| Zone% | Strike% | SwStr%¹ | zMs%² | oMs%³ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 40.5% | 59.4% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 40.6% |
| 2010 | 40.8% | 60.3% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 33.5% |
| 2011 | 39.9% | 60.0% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 34.1% |
¹SwStr% - % of pitches throw for a swinging strike. MLB average for a starter is 8%
²zMS% – % of pitches in the strike zone that the batter swings at and misses. MLB average is 12%
³oMs% – % of pitches outside the strike zone that the batter swung at and missed. MLB average is 27.6%
Zone% and Strike% is of course the percentage of Gio’s pitches that fell in the strike zone, and the percentage of his pitches that ended up as strikes. Given that type of information it’s clear that Gio is a very rare talent. His penchant to induce swings and whiffs both inside and outside of the strike zone is certainly something to behold.
By now you’re just about convinced to give Billy Beane a call to work something out. But before you pick up the phone and start to talk business, take a look at Gonzalez’s remaining contract. Gio isn’t locked up long term, but that isn’t exactly a downside yet. He also is just now arbitration eligible. In fact, Gio won’t even be able to hit free agency until the 2015 season. If you trade for him now, you could be getting yourself a front line starter who just turned 26 this past September and has seemingly hit his stride and found his comfort level.
At this point the book is out on Gio. He is a left with a good fastball, a solid 2-seamer that induces grounders at an above average clip, and an owner of a devastating curveball. He is trending towards implementing his change-up more and more and could easily be another weapon in his already impressive arsenal in which to attack hitters. Gio strikes batters out at much better rate than the average MLB starter. The starter’s K rate in 2011 was a mere 16%. Gio is obviously much more capable at swings and misses than the average starter. His FIP numbers have dropped each of the past 3 years.
This is a strong starter that is available for a great salary price. The real price of course, will be the prospect haul. Pitchers with Gio’s talent + 3 more years of cost control don’t tend to get moved on the open market. If your club is in win-now mode then you’d be wise to sacrifice the prospects necessary to bring him in. Pick up the phone. Make the call.
All statistics are from FanGraphs, StatCorner and Texas Leaguers Pitch f/x.
David considers himself a student of the school of sabermetrics. As a rule, he doesn’t discount anyones word until it’s disproven, or cite any statistic until it’s verified. A cautioned optimistic, he loves watching, learning, and studying the intricacies of baseball.
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