Ryan Dent spent his age-20 season in the South Atlantic League after being the 60th overall pick in the 2007 draft.  On a loaded Greenville infield, Dent played second base and shortstop while chipping in a .252/.350/.391 line at the level.  He spent the final week and change in high-A as a preview of 2010.

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Strengths: Dent has a fantastic build including a strong base and broad shoulders.  He had the look of a major leaguer and was arguably the most developed player on the field from a physical standpoint.  Setting up in a moderate crouch with his weight slightly on his back leg, his quick wrists allowed him to turn on inside fastballs with ease.  In game action, he took an Elvin Ramirez fastball on the inner half and laced a double down the left field line.  On defense, he looked more comfortable at second base than shortstop and wound up earning the Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2009 season.  He did not have much opportunity to show off his speed during the series, but his stolen base rates have been stellar throughout his minor league career and his athleticism should allow him to continue stealing double-digit bases for years to come.

Weaknesses: Dent’s physique is impressive, but leaves little room for physical projection.  At the plate, he struck out with two out and runners on second and third base in a key situation  At bats like this occurred throughout the series as the hard double he hit was the only real positive from an offensive standpoint.  Dent repeatedly flailed wildly at breaking pitches and rarely worked a count to his favor.  His 30%+ strikeout percentage is just not going to cut it at higher levels as he projects average power at best.  At shortstop, Dent made two errors on ground balls he attempted to play from his heels.  This sloppy play followed him across the diamond to second base as he continued to sit back on ground balls leading to another miscue.  I was surprised to later learn he won an award for stellar defensive play as he looked lost fundamentally.

As 2010 rapidly approaches, the Red Sox organization hopes things come together for Dent in Salem.  At 21, he is at an age where his tools need to start turning into consistent production.  He is already doing some things well (BB%, SB%, defensive reputation), but as a first round pick who signed for close to $600,000, the Red Sox were certainly hoping for more of a return on investment at this point.  A poor 2010 performance might move him from a prospect with a chance to break out to just another prospect flop.

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The South Atlantic League saw a number of “toolsy” center fielders pass through including former 2nd round pick Xavier Avery. On the surface, his .262/.306/.340 line is pedestrian with peripherals which show just how rough around the edges Avery is. In person, Avery’s skill set is more impressive as he works off his best tool (speed) and uses it to carve out the rest of his game.

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Strengths: A tremendous athlete, Xavier Avery had a lean, athletic frame, and uses his blazing speed in all areas of his game. On offense, his wrists are quick, and his bat is short through the strike zone. Avery worked deep counts and showed the ability to pepper ground balls back up the middle. With two hits and a walk on full counts, Avery played the role of prototypical lead off hitter perfectly. His K% dropping 6% from 2008 totals is also a positive sign. He did not attempt any steals, but legged out a couple of ground balls which put his wheels on full display. Avery also covered center field from gap to gap making a couple of highlight reel catches.

Weaknesses: Avery’s build does not project for much future size or power potential. Add to this poor weight transfer during his swing and Avery projects as an outfielder with little to no power. With his skill set, Avery will have to show enough pop to keep opposing outfielders honest so the hits continue to fall in. Another concern is a walk rate of just over 5% which negatively effects his on base ability. In the outfield, he dropped a routine fly ball to end a game which people in the stands were still talking about the following night. On the evening I saw him play, another routine fly ball became an adventure caught just off of his hip. He made two impressive catches by running down hard hit balls down in the gaps, but the snags only seemed otherworldly because of poor route running.

Outlook: Having just turned twenty, Avery could find himself back in the “Sally” for another half season. However, his 2009 line was probably enough to warrant a promotion to high-A to start the 2010 season. Avery should be a one level per year player with a potential ETA of late 2012 at the earliest. At this point, he is still learning the game and needs substantial polish. Due to this, he runs a high risk of flaming out at the upper levels of the minor leagues.

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Jacob Jefferies and Mike Sheridan both have quite a bit in common from a baseball perspective. As college hitters with advanced approaches, the Rays selected both within the first five rounds of the 2008 draft to fill immediate organizational needs. However, 2009 did not turn out exactly as the Rays planned as both prospects disappointed at Bowling Green and their offensive strengths may have wound up working against them on the professional level.

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Jefferies posted a .261/.326/.359 triple slash line as a sometimes catcher who also spent a significant amount of time as a designated hitter. His 8% K% jumps off of the page, as does his .268 BABIP. His 7.6% BB% is somewhat surprising considering his having the reputation of an “advanced” college bat.

In game action, he showed a level, line drive swing and the ability to work the gaps. However, his sweeping swing does not project much power for a prospect his size and will likely not play should he not stick at catcher. Behind the dish, Jefferies did not have any glaring weaknesses, but his size and perceived lack of mobility are an issue going forward. And with his splitting time behind the plate with a non-prospect, the Rays may see the writing on the wall too.

At .238/.278/.391, Sheridan showed some power potential, but struggled through a miserable 2009 season. With a BABIP of .229, he should improve, but his 5.3% BB% is terrible for a college hitter who turned 22 during the season. Similar to Jefferies, his 8.6% K% will keep prospect analysts intrigued for at least one more season. In Sheridan’s case, his ability to make contact may be working directly against his on base skills which is a net negative.

An athletic crouch and load served as a precursor to one of the shorter left-handed swings in the “Sally”. Sheridan is able to create backspin and could surge should he adjust his approach and learn to work deeper counts and wait for better pitches to drive. In speaking to his brother at a game, Sheridan’s philosophy was to hit the first decent fastball he saw. This needs to change! The issue is Sheridan is is currently 22 1/2 leading me to question whether it is ultimately possible.

Overall, the trifecta of Tim Beckham, Jefferies, and Sheridan represent key pieces of a rather drab 2008 draft class. With hindsight being 20/20, I can comfortably say the Rays would surely take a do-over if they had those picks again.

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One of the more frustrating prospects in terms of tools meeting production in the South Atlantic League, Oscar Tejeda’s prospect status seems stuck in neutral. On tools alone, Tejeda is one of the top twelve prospects I saw in the “Sally” this season. However, his game is still so raw at this point, it’s difficult to project if or when his all-around game will take off; especially when his numbers remained stagnant for two consecutive seasons.

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Strengths: Having just turned twenty, Tejeda is still relatively young for the South Atlantic League even after almost 750 at bats at the level. With the classic lean and long shortstop build, he is not at risk of outgrowing the position. In watching him turn a tremendous double play in which he leaped over a sliding Josh Satin and threw a laser to first base, Tejeda showed enough for me to believe he can stick.. Throughout the series, his agility was on display as his smooth movements and arm action allowed him to make all of the plays at shortstop. With an athletic stance which included a semi-deep crouch, Tejeda showed enough bat speed to lace a line drive to the second baseman off of 94 MPH heat.

Weaknesses: Tejeda has stagnated in terms of baseball development and put up even lesser numbers his second time through the “Sally”. His mechanics are a mess and his “Sammy Sosa” double toe tap simply does not work for a bottom of the order bat. Tejeda also features plenty of excess bat wagging and body movement which negatively effects his timing. Add to this a tendency to pull off the baseball and a propensity to look lost at the plate and he is in need of a complete overhaul mechanically. With his build and long strides on the base paths, Tejeda looks like he should be more of a base stealer. However, his speed is enough of an issue for some to question whether or not he has the lateral movement and range to stay at shortstop. Additionally, his lack of growth puts his overall makeup in question in terms of being “coachable”.

Outlook: After two years in the South Atlantic League, Tejeda still does not seem ready to move to high-A from an offensive standpoint. It is difficult to see him progressing to the highest level when he is already struggling to make adjustments in the lower levels of minor league baseball. Maybe he needs a push to Salem to shock his system, but the promotion will not have been earned. Tejeda has the tools to regain his prospect status, but needs to change his approach drastically and become more open to making adjustments.

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Even though I spend most of my time covering prospects in the South Atlantic League, I’m always up for a good prospect annual read for any big league organization. Lucky for me, I was able to get my hands on an advanced copy of the “Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook” by Seth Stohs of Sethspeaks.net.

With my owning Aaron Hicks, Adrian Salcedo, and Kyle Gibson in deep dynasty fantasy baseball leagues, I was eager to glean any information on the trio. Not only did I find a wealth of information on them, but I was also exposed to a number of other Twins prospects including outfielder Max Kepler who has since been added to my mental watch list.

With eighty plus pages of prospect profiles, a handful of prospect interviews, top prospect lists, and more, it’s a great read for Twins fans who are ready to take that next step into true prospect “geekdom”

I wish Seth all the best of luck in his venture. It’s obvious he put in a significant amount of effort into this project as the writing and page design is clean and of high quality. Overall, an excellent read and definitely worth the $13.95 asking price.

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Join me and Mike Rathburn of Around the Cooler as we talk fantasy baseball prospects, keepers, and more.

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Wilmer Flores’ 2009 season started with a thud and ended with a fizzle. In-between was a period of productive baseball which saw Flores’ batting average approach .300. Due to poor power numbers and a likely position change in the future, Flores’ prospect stock has taken a hit as the 2010 season creeps closer. With his being so young, does he deserve a mulligan for a seemingly disappointing season in Savannah?

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Physique & Athleticism: Flores’ conditioning improved drastically throughout the season. A source reported to me Flores had drastically improved his eating habits leading to his becoming a much leaner 6’3″. With little muscle development, Flores will take a couple of years or more to fill out his frame. He projects for additional size through the shoulders, but it is too early to say how much muscle his frame can carry considering his age and the possibility he is not done growing.

In terms of athleticism, Flores’ movements can look a bit uncoordinated and awkward. While this may simply be a sign of a big kid who simply has not grown into his body, his slow feet and elongated baseball movements can not be ignored. A good plyometric program could do Flores wonders.

Offense: With explosive wrists and excellent hand-eye coordination, Flores has barely scratched the surface in terms of offensive development. At his peak, Flores showed the ability to pepper line drives to all fields with a knack for staying back on breaking balls. When seeing the ball well, he worked deeper counts which led to much better pitches to hit and consistently hard contact. By August, Flores began to show his age as he seemingly hit a wall overnight. His pitch recognition and swing mechanics regressed leading to Flores’ batting average dropping close to thirty points.

At present, Flores’ hitting mechanics can be downright messy. With his upright stance, he is prone to changing his eye level during his stride causing him to swing under the baseball. He also has no discernible load and his front elbow drifts away from his body causing his back elbow to drop as a first movement to the ball. This creates bat drag through the strike zone and led to a number of weak pop-ups to the right side. His mechanics do not allow him to free up his hands which limits his power and leaves him susceptible to fastballs in. This, along with Flores’ not incorporating his hips to generate power, is what has suppressed whatever power Flores does have.

Defense: While Flores is unlikely to stay at shortstop, to assume he has no defensive value is an unfair assessment. His defensive movements are awkward which hides the fact his hands are fantastic. He adjusts quickly to bad hops and is a hoover on balls in front of him. The first rule a shortstop is taught it to charge everything and Flores is one of the best I have in this regard. Over the course of the 2009 season, his arm strength and throwing mechanics improved as he flashed a solid average arm. Lateral range will always be a major question mark due to lack of foot speed, but he has enough going for him defensively to project as a solid corner infielder with the ability to play left field as well.

Speed: With the nickname of “Tortuga” or turtle in Spanish, speed will certainly never be a part of Flores’ game. When running, he has a foot which dangles loosely leading scouts to wonder whether Flores suffered a foot injury as a child.

Wilmer Flores’ evaluations vary wildly as he was probably the most difficult player to scout in the “Sally”. One evening, he smokes Julio Teheran for two line drive singles, and the next, he goes 0-4 with three weak pop-ups to the right side. Over the course of 200 or so at bats, I witnessed the full spectrum of what Flores is capable of and remain bullish he can be an impact prospect if he is;

1. handled by the Mets organization with kid gloves
2. overhauls his swing mechanics

Both may be difficult as the Mets organization is known for rushing its top talent and Flores developed a reputation for being a bit lackadaisical both on and off the playing field. After only marginal success in 2009, I would leave him in Savannah until the 2010 all-star break before a promotion to Port St. Lucie.

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Join me and Eno Sarris of FanGraphs and RotoExperts as we talk fantasy baseball including dynasty and keeper leagues.

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Dayan Viciedo’s 2009 season disappointed many as his .280/.317/.391 line in AA as a 20-year old was not quite up to par for an international signing who received an 8-figure signing bonus. In fairness to Viciedo, his season was solid if one peels away the prospect hype and considers age vs. level. With many solid prospects being in full-season A at Viciedo’s age, I ran the equivalency calculator to project what Viciedo would have done at the appropriate level. The results? A .352/.402/.493 line which would completely change the current prospect conversation about him.

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Physique & Athleticism: In uniform, Viciedo looked a bit bloated as his thick upper body gave way to thinner limbs. He is quite strong and will always have a wide body, but his weight is likely to be an issue his entire career; or at least until he is able to redistribute it proportionally through a good weight program.

When not on offense, his baseball movements were slow as if his extra weight was getting in the way. At the plate, it did not seem as if his girth impeded his swing.

Offense: With truly elite bat speed, Viciedo simply does not need all of the extra muscle and movement currently incorporated into his swing mechanics. Like so many international prospects, the extra movement negatively effects timing and the ability to repeat his swing. Early in the count, he flailed wildly at any pitch near the strike zone pulling off badly. Conversely, he had a fantastic two-strike approach in which he shortened his swing to make hard contact and hammered two lasers for singles back up the middle. His approach was enough to drive most hitting coaches crazy, but his offensive ability is still tantalizing. He is the type of hitter whose power could really take off if he just trusted his hands and worked on being short and compact through the strike zone on every swing.

Defense: Viciedo was able to handle balls hit directly at him, but he stabbed at balls with his glove showing hard hands. His lateral movement was non-existent, and his arm action looked labored. Since the 2009 season ended, news about Viciedo having some minor arm problems have surfaced. At the big league level, he is likely to settle in as a 1B/DH.

Speed: Stolen bases will never be a part of Viciedo’s game. He is likely to become a liability on the base paths.

As with many big money international prospects, Viciedo just was not able to live up to the hype surrounding his signing. It was unfair to expect so much from him, but Viciedo certainly did not do himself any favors by playing the season out of shape. In 2010, he may once again find himself in Birmingham as he works on the finer parts of his game. The offensive ceiling is still there, but he is going to have to adopt a more professional approach to reach it.

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It has been a busy week at S.T.S. as more people learn about the blog. Enjoy the links and a big thanks to everyone who reads and contributes through the blog, message board, and on Twitter.

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Jonathan Mayo posted a piece on my top 30 prospects as a primer for his upcoming top 50 for MLBN and MLB.com. It’s always a fun read as he collects input from big names in and around baseball.

Camden Depot ran a piece on the blog and asked about a couple of Delmarva prospects who passed through the South Atlantic League during the 2009 season.

Toby Hyde took a moment to fire a couple of mortar rounds at my chat comments about my concerns about Jenrry Mejia’s durability. I would put Mejia’s 2010 over/under for innings pitched at 110 or so.

Metsblog pulled a few quotes on Jenrry Mejia from my recent chat with Adam Foster of Project Prospect.

Speaking of Project Prospect, check out their top 10 prospects and let them know S.T.S. sent you! I may be helping out with a number of prospect reports for the Digital Prospect Guide so be on the lookout for that.

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