Some prospects have a clear path to the Major Leagues in their respective organizations; others have question marks about how and where they fit. Boston Red Sox catching prospect Ryan Lavarnway would fit into the latter category. The catching prospect has answered questions about his bat – 30+ home runs between Double and Triple-A in 2011, but big questions still remain about his long term defensive position.

Offensively, Lavarnway has plus raw power and an advanced straight away approach. There is a bit of length in his swing on the back end, but given his well below average speed, Lavarnway won’t be making a living hitting singles. You live with the length in his swing for the trade off in the power and extra base hits that it provides. Lavarnway has the ability to stay inside the ball and work the big parts of the field, and will concede and work toward Right Field when behind in the count; both of which will help offset the length in his swing.

However, few project Lavarnway to stay behind the plate long term. Lavarnway is a below average athlete in a large 6-foot-4, 235 pound body. That’s not a good combination for a Catcher. Lavarnway has made strides defensively, and has soft enough hands to be a decent receiver. Lavarnway is lacking in the mobility department, as it takes a lot of time to move his large frame into position to block.

There are only three catchers currently in the Majors with similar size to Lavarnway.  Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters and teammate Jarrod Saltalamacchia. All three are vastly superior athletes. Should Saltalamacchia and Lavarnway open 2012 as the catching tandem in Boston, they’ll need a great tag team nickname as possibly the largest catching corps in MLB history. Lavarnway’s arm grades out around average, but his arm is mitigated by a below average pop time.

Every young player needs time to learn and get through the growing pains. On a lesser team, Lavarnway could force himself into the 1B/DH conversation. In Boston, the Red Sox simply won’t sacrifice Adrian Gonzalez‘s or David Ortiz’s at bats to a rookie while he figures it out. Lavarnway’s situation isn’t very different from the one New York Yankees catching prospect Jesus Montero is facing, though even fewer project Montero to stay behind the plate.

Lavarnway being traded to a lesser team who can afford to let him give catching the old ‘college try while playing first base and designated hitter would be ideal for his continued development. Lavarnway’s offensive potential leaves him a valuable trade asset, regardless of the team or position he winds up playing.

Steve Carter currently works as a baseball/softball hitting instructor and is Senior Scout at ProjectProspect.com. He is also a former college baseball player.

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Boston Red Sox first base prospect Miles Head has come from out of nowhere to post a .330/.397/.591 line across two levels landing the young slugger in high-A Salem as a 20-year old. From scouting him in person, and talking to contacts about Head, it’s safe to say none of us know exactly what to make of his scorching first half and whether his performance should silence the questions about his overall tools and skill set we all seem to have.

• Listed height/weight of 6-foot-0, 215 lbs. might be a little on the light side
• Stocky; Scouts would consider him a “bad body prospect”
• Lacked athleticism; Struggled to scoop throws at his shoe tops; Feet tied up on foul balls
• Strong young hitter; Showed considerable opposite field power in game action
• Made excellent adjustments at the plate; K’d 1st AB on FB up; Pitcher tried same in 2nd AB; Head hit long HR to LCF
• Hit 1st pitch 2B off of RF fence; Scouts split on whether he has opposite field skill or is just late on fastballs
• Small hitch in the back of his swing causes slight uppercut swing
• Love the front elbow tucks pre-swing; Used same mechanism to elbow tucked and hands inside the ball in college
• Generates natural lift; Uses plenty of pull hand to generate power
• Not afraid to work deep counts; Does look for fastballs to attack
• Well below average defense; Projects as DH or liability at 1B
• Speed is non-existent

In all honestly, Head’s ascent as a prospect is one of the most surprising things I’ve witnessed this season. Prospect junkies who work from stats alone are going to assume Head is a star in the making, but I personally prefer teammates Brandon Jacobs and Xander Bogaerts as prospects. Going forward, Head is going to have to excel offensively at every level to shake questions about his height, build and poor defense. For me, his overall skill set plays like a poor man’s Matt LaPorta. And while the Indians first baseman mashed his way through both the Milwaukee and Cleveland systems, LaPorta has struggled mightily as a big leaguer and continues to look more like a fringe starter than player a team can count on to consistently produce at first base.

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Boston Red Sox farmhand Ronald Bermudez started with a bang, but ended with a fizzle in the “Sally” finishing with a .281/.342/.457 line at the level. A late season promotion to high-A Salem saw his numbers plummet, albeit a small sample size.

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The first time I scouted Bermudez, I liked the natural loft in his swing and thought he could swing it a bit. Of course a left fielder with limited athleticism has to rake and I just don’t see Bermudez as that kind of prospect. For now, I’d consider Bermudez more of an organizational type with limited upside due to his all-around skill set and trouble adjusting to offspeed pitches. The Red Sox have many better outfield options in the system.

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Boston Red Sox pitching prospect Manuel Rivera dominated the GCL in his stateside debut by posting a 2.14 FIP with 50 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched during the 2009 season.

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2010 marked Rivera’s first in full season baseball and an assignment to Greenville proved more challenging. A 3.64 FIP and BB/PA below 4% is solid, but he gave up more hits than innings pitched, surrendered less ground balls, and struck out less than 20% of batters faced. A mixed bag indeed, but what about his stuff?

Rivera worked consistently at 85-87 MPH with his fastball with enough effort for me to wonder if there’s more velocity there. The “funk” in his delivery will make him deceptive, but I wonder if the pause and lack of fluidity negatively affects his velocity.

His best breaking ball was a changeup he threw for strikes with promising arm action and some fade. His curveball was fringe and had varying release points.

Overall, I left underwhelmed and feeling he was more of an organizational guy who dominated short season competition due to “deception and junk” and does not have the arsenal to fool upper level competition.

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Boston Red Sox 2010 first round draft pick Kolbrin Vitek finished the season with Greenville providing me with a rare September look at a top draft pick from the current year’s draft crop. After watching a few at bats, I was left wondering exactly why Vitek was such a high pick in the first place?

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• Listed height/weight of 6-foot-2, 195 pounds seemed on the light side
• Muscular build; Shoulders reminiscent of a football player
• Shoulders appeared muscular to the point of being stiff; Caused swing to appear rigid
• Load and swing were separate parts of his swing mechanics; Lacked fluidity
• Significant length in the back of his swing; above average bat whip through the strike zone
• Hitch led to difficulty hitting pitches above his waist; Best swings were on balls at the knees
• Quite a bit of swing-and-miss for a high average, high contact hitter
• Appeared at designated hitter
• Greenville was weak defensively at the corners; Does this speak to his defensive ability, or lack thereof?
• Gut feeling leaves Vitek a classic tweener

Entering 2011, I’m not sure where Vitek fits into Boston’s organizational plans. He will probably start the year in High-A since he’s entering his age-22 season and achieved a moderate amount of success after signing, but where will he play?

I’ve seen corner prospects with legitimate power and Vitek did not strike me as that. Add his apparent difficulty playing defense and what’s left is a poor defender with the offensive skill set of a second baseman relegated to a corner.

How does that play at the big league level? When I struggle to find an answer or visualize a scenario, I have no choice but to question whether Vitek will make it at all.

In all honesty, my initial reaction to Vitek left me wondering what I missed so I ran his name by a scouting contact who had watched him play as well. His response, “I didn’t see it. I don’t understand how he was a first rounder.”

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Boston Red Sox third base prospect Michael Almanzar struggled mightily through his first 700 or so at bats in the South Atlantic League. Then last August, something seamed to click. Over the final month plus of the 2010 season, Almanzar batted .301 with five home runs (half of his full season total). Is this a sign of things to come for the 20-year old? In scouting Almanzar a little earlier in the season, I noticed little growth from the prospect I saw in 2009.

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• Body language comes off as lackadaisical at times
• Listed height/weight of 6-foot-3, 190 pounds looked about right
• Still very long and lean; Less athletic than his body type would indicate
• Room to add additional size; May not be an easy task due to body type
• Explosive hands; Still has plenty of power projection
• Long load & swing; Needs to shorten his considerably to take advantage of his hands
• Too much extra movement pre-pitch; Pull hand-heavy swing
• Impatient hitter; Swung at anything within arm’s length of home plate
• Steady diet of breaking balls gave him fits
• Fringe average arm in the field; Long release
• Good reflexes; Minimal range in the field; Step-and-a-dive guy
• Profiles best at 1B, but 3B not out of the question…yet
• Slow runner; Probably base-clogger at physical maturity

Almanzar’s struggles are a bit reminiscent of those faced by Oscar Tejeda prior to his 2010 breakout campaign. They are different types of players, but both had long swings and loads which made their mechanics difficult to repeat. In Tejeda’s case, he made adjustments which allowed him to tap into his tools. Hopefully Almanzar will learn from Tejeda’s development and emulate that. At 20, he still has plenty of time to regain his status as a prospect with helium in the organization. However, Almanzar is unlikely to surpass double-A without considerable refinement.

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Boston Red Sox pitcher Kendal Volz spent the entire 2010 season in Greenville where he posted a very impressive 6.71 K/BB rate. However, at 22, he was old for the South Atlantic League as an overslot college signing who was expected shred through younger competition. Unfortunately for Volz, 127 hits allowed in 116 1/3 IP is anything but “shredding” as his impressive ratios were somewhat offset by the fact he was so hittable.

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• Durable frame; Strong through his core; Athletic for a pitcher
• Good arm action; Looks like he should throw harder
• Landing on stiff front leg worrisome; affects follow through
• 88-91 MPH fastball
• Threw for strikes; Little movement on the pitch
• Upper 70′s curveball
• Sharp at times; Could be his best weapon
• Low 80′s slider
• Sharp, but little downward tilt

I had the opportunity to speak to Volz for a minute as I left the stadium after seeing him on his post-start run.  He seemed like a great kid and a hard worker, but I can’t help but wonder what the Boston Red Sox saw to warrant a $550,000 signing bonus?  With 2011 being his age-23 season, Volz needs to start off strong and finish the year in AA to really put himself on the map.  I believe there may be some untapped velocity left based on his size and arm action, but his landing on what appears to be an abnormally stiff front leg makes it appear as if he’s working against himself.

For now, he’s more of a fringe prospect than guy I see as a big league contributor.  However, if he can iron out his mechanical kinks, add a little velocity, and continue to tighten a curveball which has considerable potential, I can see him becoming a legitimate bullpen arm.

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While in Greenville to watch the Lakewood BlueClaws, I shot a few pitches of Boston Red Sox farmhand Ryan Pressley from the stretch.  His stuff was pretty fringy at 88-91 MPH and I just don’t have enough on him to write a game report.  What I do have is this video which I stumbled across.  Maybe STS should try out something new and ask readers to comment on Pressly if they have seen him and break down the video?  Any takers?  I’ll be happy to mash up the replies into a report and run it by a scout buddy or two to see how we did.

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Boston Red Sox prospect Jeremy Hazelbaker has piqued the interest of BoSox prospect following a 10/60 season for the Greenville Drive.  Having recently celebrated his 23rd birthday, Hazelbaker is a bit ripe for the South Atlantic League, but supporters will point to his being a 4th rounder in 2009 as a reason to cut him some slack. Add to this a second half in which he raked to a .292/.373/.504 line with 31 steals in 39 attempts and it’s no wonder why questions about Hazelbaker’s prospect status began hitting my inbox.

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Physical Projection: Long and lean, Hazelbaker is not a prospect who projects to add significant growth going forward. In uniform, his lack of size through the shoulders, legs, and hips would leave a casual fan with the impression Hazelbaker is 19, not 23. However, he does have more explosion than his appearance would lead one to believe which explains his double-digit home run season (explosive wrists) and high stolen base totals (strong first step)

Offense: With an upright stance, Hazelbaker has some wiggle pre-pitch which gives way to a calm load before he swings. Rarely cheated, Hazelbaker unleashes a somewhat controlled, but aggressive hack showing wrist snap and a swing plane which allows him to generate some lift. However, with that aggression comes a tendency to pull his head off the ball which has contributed to his high strikeout totals. Add to this iffy breaking ball recognition and he may be forced to sacrifice some of his present power for contact at higher levels. If Hazelbaker was younger, these deficiencies would be of little concern. Having just completed his age-22 season, his pitch recognition issues are a major red flag considering the majority of South Atlantic League hurlers struggle to throw even fringe breaking pitches. If he can’t pick them and rip them here, what happens when he faces somebody in AA who can really spin a breaking ball?

Defense: In seeing Hazelbaker on three separate occasions, nothing he did in the outfield really stood out.  While not a ringing endorsement, the fact he more-or-less blended in on defense speaks to his being an average all-around outfielder.  Under normal circumstances, only the exceptional or horrendous will really draw attention.  In speaking to a couple of scouts who read my initial blurbs on him after scouting Hazelbaker themselves, one agreed with my initial assessment, while another felt his route running was below average and would limit him to an outfield corner.  If this is the case, it’s a major ding to his prospect value as he just does not profile particularly well in a corner long term.

Speed: Hazelbaker combines very good baserunning instincts with a strong first step and excellent speed which comes from being a long-strider.  He should continue to steal bases as he moves up the ladder, although those totals may be limited by his strikeout totals and a lower on base percentage as he is promoted to leagues where pitchers show increased command.

While I’m more bullish on Hazelbaker than most older prospects I have the opportunity to scout, he’s certainly not a player without flaws which may wind up being fatal as he continues to progress.  For whatever reason, the Boston Red Sox have become known for stacking the system with outfielders like Hazelbaker who have a solid all-around skill set, but simply lack the oomph of somebody a scout would tag as “a guy”.  Going forward, it will be important for Hazelbaker to lower his strikeout totals through improved breaking ball recognition or his prospect status may be DOA by the time he hits double-A.  Should he display the ability to play centerfield some, Hazelbaker could settle in as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a big league team due to his speed, left-handed bat, and flexibility on defense.

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Entering 2010, Boston Red Sox prospect Derrik Gibson’s prospect bubble was filled with helium. As the season draws to a close, his .241/.310/.319 line has sapped much of his prospect mojo. However, Gibson has chipped in thirty stolen bases and continues to play shortstop which are both pluses. Will 2011 be a rebound year for the former second round pick?

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Physical Projection: At a listed height of 6’1″ and weighing a svelte 170 lbs., Gibson may be the leanest athlete I’ve seen this season.  His wiry frame is well-defined, but one can’t help but have concerns about his ability to add size.  When projecting a prospect’s ability to pack pounds onto his frame, present quadricep, forearm, and calve size are key indicators to consider.  If a player is thin, but has some natural size in those areas, future growth becomes easy to assess.  With Gibson, he was extremely lean throughout forcing me to wonder if Gibson’s eating all the peanut butter and ice cream in South Carolina would even make a dent.  Even more worrisome was a general lack of explosion and fluidity.  Often times a player has one or the other.  In Gibson’s case, he had a touch of both, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.

Offense: While scouts spend quite a bit of time discussing the amount of effort in a pitcher’s delivery, there’s also something to be said about effort in terms of swing and projecting future power.  Prospects like Dustin Pedroia were knocked as max effort swingers with some believing the approach was not going to work at the major league level.  Derrik Gibson also seems content to challenge this line of thinking as he regularly swings out of his shoes in an attempt to yank fastballs down the left field line.  In Gibson’s case, his limited power ceiling leaves me wanting to see a more controlled approach stressing patience at the plate and line drives back up the middle.  Like typecasting in movies, Gibson fits a player “type” of potential leadoff hitter and needs to do a better job playing the role of one.  Looking to hit the first fastball he sees into the parking lot simply isn’t playing to his strengths.  Especially when his front elbow doesn’t stay tight to his body limiting his ability to throw the bat head to handle inside pitches.

Defense: Gibson was well-tested in the five games I watched him man shortstop and was flawless on the infield.  However, in seeing the limits of his range and arm strength, maximizing his defensive value will mean a move to second base down the road.  On one specific play, he ranged relatively deep to backhand on a ground ball and came up throwing across the diamond to catch the runner by a step.  While the play looked beautiful, fact is he threw out one of the slower runners on the field by only a half step.  Any runner with even slightly below average speed would have beat the throw by a step.  And while fringe average arm strength is fine on routine ground balls, major league shortstops make that play against much faster runners.  At Gibson’s best, his limitations were on full display.

Speed: 30/36 in stolen bases pretty much speaks for itself and needs to, because I was unable to pull a legit home-to-first time off of unedited video.  He’s a well above average runner who should continue to steal bases as he matures.  Gibson displayed good instincts on the bases and was consistently able to turn strong reads into excellent jumps.  His strongest single tool, Gibson will have to frame the rest of his game around his foot speed.

After all of the prospect hype Derrik Gibson has received, my expectations were high and his all-around game disappointed.  Beyond his speed, the rest of his tools are average or below and it’s very difficult to project growth from a player who works against his strengths on a regular basis.  As his statistics indicate, he’s a fringe guy right now and needs to refine his game.  For a player who has been linked so closely to fellow Red Sox prospect Pete Hissey since the 2008 draft, their respective games are polar opposites.

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