For all the time, energy, and late nights that we work on our pre-draft rankings there are certain things that are just unknown to us. One of those variables is injury status, and 2011 that was no exception — especially for two top tier pitchers.

Adam Wainwright was out for the season when forced to go under the knife as a victim of yet another Tommy John’s surgery. Yes, Waino’s ulnar collateral ligament had to be replaced. The other pitcher that we’ll be taking a look at today is Josh Johnson. This season Johnson was held to just 9 starts before he was shut down for good in mid May with a shoulder injury.

Although everyone was (or should have been) aware of Wainwright’s non existent 2011 season, few foresaw the injury to Johnson. Despite a back strain that caused Johnson to miss the last 3 weeks of the 2010 season, there was little reason to be concerned for the hurler coming into 2011. True, Johnson underwent TJS in August of 2007, but with little sign of any elbow injury or pitching delivery quirks, there was no cause for alarm. Although Johnson was the one with shoulder pain, I was one of the victims left with buyer’s remorse. With a sensational start to the season (1.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, but an unsustainably low .239 BABIP) I had nothing but Roy Halladay level number hopes for Johnson. Alas, it was not meant to be.

Let’s take a look at Wainright’s and Johnson’s prospect pedigree before we compare their MLB careers or injuries any further.

Looking at this simple table, it’s clear that Wainwright was the much more highly touted prospect both coming out of high school and in the minor leagues. I would say it is safe to say that Johnson’s 2007 TJS hurt his prospect rank, but that’s just speculation. Let’s move onto their career numbers.

Or in other words, a study of dominance. Combine a high strikeout and ground ball rate with very few walks, fly balls and even fewer home runs and you have yourself a pair of front line starters. If you’d really like to pick nits, then a little higher of a ground ball rate would be nice, but you’d just be complaining that your gold isn’t platinum at that point.

We’ve seen that both pitchers come from a fairly high pedigree, although Wainwright did outclass Johnson in the minor league rankings. Despite the misnomers, Johnson has proved every bit as capable of getting big league hitters out at the same rate and almost the same fashion as Wainwright. As their pitching ability has been proven to be even, let us observe the injuries that have derailed them.

Wainwright underwent TJS February 28th, 2011. The typical time frame of recovery is 12 to 15 months, which would put Waino clearly on track to be ready for Spring Training if everything proceeds as planned. Given that he was already throwing off a mound multiple times in late August and early September, at this point in time, there is little reason to doubt his recovery process. Although TJS is certainly a long and disappointing turn of events for Wainwright, replacing the UCL is a relatively common injury to come back from. Sometimes even multiple times. I’m not one to marginalize a surgery that derails a pitchers career for a minimum of a year, but TJS is an injury that can be addressed efficiently and thoroughly.

Shoulder pain on the other hand is something that is not yet fully understood. Look no further than the remains of Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb for some recent examples. Not even the great  Chet Steadman wasn’t impervious to the brutal truth of shoulder injuries and the uncertainty of shoulder surgery. The fact of the matter is that from a medical science standpoint, we simply aren’t in the same ballpark of knowledge when it comes to shoulder injuries as we are with elbow injuries. Although Johnson did not actually undergo surgery, opting instead for rehab, the basic nature and cause of shoulder soreness is something that we don’t currently fully understand.

Given the performance already demonstrated, the noteworthy prospect pedigree and the working knowledge that we have of each pitcher’s injury, I will be looking towards drafting Adam Wainwright, with confidence, to my fantasy teams. If Josh Johnson happens to fall to the 20th round or so, then sure, I’d take a flier on him. However I personally do not recommend nor do I expect Johnson to be nearly as highly drafted as in previous years. I can’t imagine that when you compare Johnson and Wainwright, why you would take the much larger risk in Johnson. Yes, Wainwright is the one coming off of major surgery, but it is a known and well established procedure. Johnson still represents risk, and in fantasy baseball, there isn’t much room for risk on the draft board.

David considers himself a student of the school of sabermetrics. As a rule, he doesn’t discount anyones word until it’s disproven, or cite any statistic until it’s verified. A cautioned optimistic, he loves watching, learning, and studying the intricacies of baseball.

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Late in the 2010 season, I had the opportunity to scout Edgar Olmos while looking at houses in the Atlanta area. After becoming what I thought was hopelessly lost, I happened to stumble upon the stadium about 45-minutes after the first pitch was supposed to be thrown. Fortunately for me, a strong, but short thunderstorm delayed the action and I was there for the first pitch. A special hat tip to @Jenn_B_Smith on twitter for the free ticket and scoop on a number of former Rome Braves who have moved onto bigger and better things. She’s truly one of the most baseball savvy women on twitter and deserves a follow.

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In seeing Olmos pitch, it was a tale of two pitchers as he cruised through the first four innings only to fall apart in the fifth before being pulled. And while his final line of 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings was uninspiring, I saw glimpses of a pitcher capable of being a top-10 prospect within the organization when lists are released after the 2011 season.

Physical Projection: Listed at 6’5″, 180 lbs., Olmos seemed to be closer to 210 lbs in person.  At present, his lower half has some development and size, but he’s still pretty lean throughout.  His frame should allow for additional size, and Olmos’ limbs are what I would consider to be very long and loose.  It leaves him with plenty of projection, but also presents a challenge as Olmos will really need to tighten his mechanics to consistently repeat his delivery.

Mound Presence: Whether Olmos was rattled, tired, or both, he fell apart the first time he faced adversity.  After cruising through four innings, a misplayed bunt opened the floodgates and Olmos was unable to recover.  When on the ropes, his body language quickly went south and it was easy to see his frustration bubbling over.  Intensity is a plus, but Olmos needs to better control his emotions on the mound to become consistent and avoid extreme peaks and valleys in his performance.

Fastball: With his 3/4 arm slot, Olmos currently slings the baseball across his body which allows for significant tail on a fastball which he works at 89-91 MPH.  However, he does have a tendency to elevate the pitch and did not seem too keen on working the inner half of the plate.  Additionally, his throwing across his body may limit his velocity some as his present arm whip is very easy.  He looks like a pitcher who has the ability to throw harder, but just isn’t incorporating his lower half enough to take advantage of his size and arm action.

His 2-seam fastball was a quality pitch he located consistently.  It was definitely a weapon, but one which would be so much better if he could backdoor the pitch on the inside corner to right-handed hitters.

Curveball: At 75-77 MPH, Olmos’ curveball had plenty of movement, but was not what I would consider to be sharp.  It was more “slurvy” than I would like to see with a 3-7 break.  In looking at his platoon splits, I strongly believe this pitch is the reason for his much stronger peripherals versus LHH as sweeping breaking balls away make for an extremely effective pitch across the league.  However, that same sweeping breaking ball is not going to work at higher levels without refinement, and is likely already being exploited by RHH.

Changeup: At 76 MPH, I only registered a single gun reading on the pitch the entire outing.  That’s obviously not enough to make a strong assessment of the offering, but is telling nonetheless as he probably threw 80% fastballs, 15% curveballs, and 5% changeups during his starT.  This speaks to his breaking pitches lagging behind the rest of his arsenal.

At present, Edgar Olmos is an intriguing, but unrefined combination of athleticism and projection.  At twenty, he’s a prospect any organization would love to have as a project which could yield a significant return.  2011 will be a big season for his prospect status as he had only 10 2/3 professional innings since being drafted in 2008 before throwing 117 1/3 in 2010.  And while not a big workload in general compared to prospects his age, it’s worth noting and something I’ll keep a passing eye on as 2011 progresses.  Based on what I saw, it’s hard for me to project him as a starting pitcher at the major league level, but he’s still in an embryonic state as a prospect and has the physical tools to grow significantly as he makes up for lost time.

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Since being drafted sixth overall by the Florida Marlins in 2008, Kyle Skipworth has struggled to establish himself as a legitimate prospect in the eyes of scouts, as well as the Florida Marlins system.  Having heard many a dig from scouts and prospect analysts alike, I simply could not pass up the opportunity to see Skipworth in person late in the 2010 season.  And while I left feeling “Skip” was a little better than the information I had received, I can easily understand the motivation behind them considering a number of prospects drafted behind him would already be in Miami.

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Physical Projection: Listed at 6’4″, 205 lbs., Skipworth is a physical presence on a baseball field.  However, he certainly looked larger than 205 and lacked muscle definition leading me to believe it’s not all good weight.  From a projection standpoint, this is really not a bad thing considering he can either work on his quickness by becoming leaner, or go for power since his frame could handle an additional 25-30 pounds of muscle even though it would likely mean a move out from behind the plate.

As an athlete, his movements are long and on the slow side.  Skipworth is a big, strong kid, but lacked explosion in all aspects of his game.

Offense: Earlier this season, I asked a scout about Skipworth who commented he had never seen a prospect swing through so many fastballs over the heart of the plate.  In person, Skipworth certainly did not disappoint as he either swung through, or weakly popped foul a half dozen pitches or so.

Length in the back of his swing, combined with average bat speed are to blame for his sky high strikeout totals.  And while both are distinct, and possibly insurmountable shortcomings, his swing was fluid and Skipworth had easy pop when he was able to extend his arms.  To accentuate the positive, it would be in Skipworth’s best interest to quiet his hands when loading pre-pitch.  Against a starter throwing 87-90 MPH, he swung through pitches one would expect Skipworth to hit a mile and looked much more comfortable dealing with fastballs down in the zone.  And while he was very aggressive, Skipworth did not chase pitches outside the strike zone often leading me to believe he has some upside in terms of pitch recognition.

Defense: At any height above 6’2″, only premium athletes manage to remain behind the plate long term and Skipworth is simply not in that class.  In between innings, he showed an extremely long release and inability to “funnel” properly.  In receiving pitches, he did not attempt to frame a number of tailing fastballs to the outside corner which cost the starter strikes.  And while I did not see him tested by many balls in the dirt, a quick assessment of his size, athleticism, and movements behind the dish force me to question how he can react to, and block balls to his left and right.

Speed: Once Skipworth gets his body moving in a general direction, his running style can be described as “barreling”.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if his long strides made Skipworth look significantly faster than he actually is.

With a cup of coffee in the Southern League, along with an Arizona Fall League assignment, it seems the Florida Marlins are growing a bit impatient with Skipworth.  After seeing him play, I wonder if he would be better off shedding the tools of ignorance for good and sliding over to first base.  While this would deflate most prospects value significantly, allowing the Skipworth the ability to fill out his frame and focus solely on hitting might be the best chance to revitalize a once promising career.

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I had the opportunity to catch Matt Dominguez a couple of times late in the 2009 season. While not as good a prospect as Logan Morrison or Mike Stanton, Dominguez was impressive both in the field and at the plate. He has adjustments to make, but has the skill set to become an above average third baseman. As with Morrison, I was unable to complete a report on him prior to the 2010 season. I’m debating whether or not to write up older reports so post if you want a full report on him and don’t mind if it’s from 2009.

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The most impressive power hitting prospect I have had the opportunity to see, this footage of Marlins prospect Mike Stanton is from late 2009 during a game where the Carolina Mudcats seemed more than happy to pitch around Stanton.  Luckily, I was able to catch Stanton again during the Southern League playoffs where he flashed some of the immense power potential he has become known for.

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One of the premier first base prospects in the game, I had the opportunity to catch Logan Morrison a couple of times last season in Jacksonville.  With my crazy work schedule, I was unable to put together a full report on him in a timely fashion and have held back for fear the information may be dated.  if readers want a full report on Morrison from the end of the 2009 season, I’ll be happy to oblige.  I guess that’s what the comments section is for.  Enjoy the video!

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As the 2009 “Sally” season came to a close, baseball was still being played in Jacksonville as the AA Marlins affiliate made the Southern League playoffs. After seeing Mike Stanton not put a ball in play (3 walks, 1 strikeout) a month earlier, I felt compelled to take a second look. While I can not say Stanton’s power was on full display, what I did see was enough for me to firmly cement him as the best power hitting prospect I have ever seen.

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Physique & Athleticism: Stanton’s listed height/weight of 6’5″, 205 lbs. seemed on the light side as I would have pegged him at 220 or so. An awesome physical specimen, his future physical projection is off the charts as he has the frame to add significant size with extremely long limbs to boot. He towered over his outfield counterparts during the “National Anthem”.

Athletically, Stanton is still growing into his body and his movements can be a bit stiff and awkward; especially in the outfield. As he continues to mature, I expect his baseball movements will become more compact which should help in a number of areas including his swing.

Offense: With 68 minor league home runs before his twentieth birthday, Mike Stanton’s power in the low minors is of historic proportion. As somebody who saw the quality of “Sally” pitching first hand, along with the number of 18-year old prospects who struggle mightily because of it, Stanton’s 39 home run 2008 was truly jaw-dropping. Yes, the strikeouts are a concern, but I am confident the length of his swing can be fixed by a couple of minor tweaks. Stanton’s would benefit from keeping his front elbow tighter to his body during his swing. This will help him better stay inside the baseball and make for more repeatable swing mechanics. He also has a slight hitch in his pre-swing load which can lead to other timing issues.

In game action, Stanton worked a number of deep counts as pitchers were careful in working him down and out leading to multiple free passes. He did show some difficulty when pitchers followed up a curveball low and out with a fastball up due to his swing length. With his strikeout total, I expected Stanton to have less of a two-strike approach than what he displayed. Hits with two-strikes included a ground ball single back up the middle and a 410-foot, one hop double off of the center field fence off of his front foot.

Maybe even more impressive were the pitches he missed badly. I have heard people talk about “big league fly balls” as a demonstration of power in their own right. Stanton’s swinging under the ball and making contact towards the handle resulted in two rain-makers to the opposite field which the right fielder caught at the base of the right-center field fence. In the playoff game alone, Stanton would have had three home runs with 15-20 pounds of additional muscle. It is one thing for a player to take a ball over the fence when he hits it on the sweet spot. It is quite unique when a player has the ability to badly hit a ball out to any field. His raw power is a true 80 on the 20-80 scale and his in-game power is also an 80 making him a very rare prospect.

Defense: In playoff action, Stanton served as the primary designated hitter. He was in right field the first game I attended and looked a bit stiff moving around the outfield. Between the single game sample and rain-soaked field, it is hard for me to make an assessment of his defense at this time. I hope to see him again in 2010 and should have more information then.

Speed: Stanton showed good base-running ability as he nabbed a couple of extra bases on batted balls I felt he would be held up on. With seven stolen bases in two plus minor league seasons, it is easy to completely dismiss his base-running ability, but he has a good feel for it which should keep him from becoming a true base-clogger for awhile.

In 1998, I was present for Mark McGwire’s 57th, 58th, and 59th home runs at “Pro Player Stadium” in Miami, Florida. Never in my life did I think I would see such easy power from a baseball swing. It was truly awe inspiring. While Mike Stanton is not a polished product, he has the potential to be a power hitter in the Mark McGwire mold. However, his strikeout totals will determine whether he becomes a well-rounded hitter with the ability to chip in decent average/on base percentage totals, or just an all-or-nothing power threat.

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