Houston Astros prospect Jonathan Meyer had a disappointing 2010 season posting a .245/.304/.317 line in the “Sally”. In game action, I liked his set up and swing mechanics, but saw only average bat speed and difficult catching up to quality fastballs.

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At this point, I believe Meyer has hit himself out of being a third base prospect. In batting practice, he took ground balls at second base and think the Astros may feel the same. For him to regain whatever prospect status he did have, a position change will have to be a part of that.

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Houston Astros pitching prospect Juan Minaya fought through 2010 as a 19-year old in the “Sally” posting a 4.91 FIP and 96/73 K/BB ratio in just over 127 innings pitched. And while the numbers certainly are not pretty, I definitely saw a silver lining after scouting the young pitcher in person.

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Throughout the appearance Minaya’s fastball was in the 90-92 MPH range, touching 93. Rail thin, an additional 25 pounds of size could see Minaya’s velocity jump into the mid-90′s. In game action, his release point was inconsistent which explains the high walk rate, but innings and experience should help that.

The only breaking ball Minaya used in game action was a 77-79 MPH slurve which might become a weapon down in the zone with continued refinement. This led me to note that Minaya could be a “groundball machine” at the time. Minaya’s GB% finished at 52% on the season.

If I was a scout making the “Sally” rounds, I would have labeled him an “inquire” to see if he could be scooped on the cheap. In the end, his two pitch arsenal leaves him as a potential bullpen arm in the future which has some value considering the problems the Houston Astros organization has had developing talent in recent years.

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Without much time to prepare to scout the Lexington Legends prior to heading to the park, I knew little about the roster after former early round picks Jiovanni Mier and Tanner Bushue.  In a move uncharacteristic of me, I threw the question out to “tweeps” hoping to be thrown a name or two as I hurried to make sure I at least had rosters, the radar gun, and video camera.  If I remember correctly, it was @AppyAstros who first mentioned Altuve was a nice player after seeing him a number of times in the Appalachian League.  Of course my first reaction was, “seriously?” since his listed height of 5’5″ probably leaves him as the shortest prospect in minor league baseball.  After watching him play multiple times, I understand why he has gained prospect cred including placement in Baseball Prospectus’ Houston Astros Top-11 Prospects.

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Physical Projection: Simply put, Altuve has very little projection.  At 5’5″, and a stout 150 lbs. or so, he has a muscular frame including broad shoulders and a well-developed lower half.  For his size, he has “Popeye” strength along with speed and explosive movements.  However, it’s impossible to avoid coming back to his size as a limiting factor when envisioning Altuve’s future roll/or lack thereof at the big league level.

Offense: One of my favorite hitters to watch in 2010, Altuve has an extremely short stroke and little-to-no strike zone to speak of.  He may have had the most memorable at bat of the 2010 season for me as he worked and 0-2 count back to full up in-between fouling off what seemed like a dozen pitches before lacing a single up the middle.  There’s just no way around the fact that the kid can hit. PERIOD!

However, one is forced to wonder how his surprising power will play at higher levels considering the bat looks like a billy club in his grip.  Throughout my playing career, I knew a number of non-power hitters (like myself) who looked like He-Man when facing less-experienced or inferior competition.  I suspect this is part of the explanation for Altuve’s home run total as his approach and ability to take advantage of his small strike zone clearly gave him the upper hand during most at bats.  However, he certainly wasn’t looking to work deep counts as he frequently looked to square up fastballs early in an at bat.  Breaking balls also gave him some difficulty as his “walk away” stride and slight pause in his load led to his being out front and off balance.

Defense: In continuing with the theme that Jose Altuve excels at areas of the game he can control, his defense at second base is stellar.  He plays sound, fundamental defense making routine plays with ease.  Unfortunately, I did not have the opportunity to see his range left and right and am left wondering just how much his size limits his ability to get to balls deep in the hole.  An inability to envision him at shortstop severely limits his value as a potential utility player as second base is his only real projectable home.

Speed: 42/56 in stolen base attempts across two levels, he obviously has the speed and intelligence to steal bases, but his success rate has dropped with each subsequent level.  Until Altuve proves otherwise, I’m forced to believe this is a developing trend which will only recede even further with time.  For now, I can envision Altuve as a 15-20 stolen base threat at the major league level, but his frame leads me to believe his present speed will not maintain well through his prime.

As you can tell, this scouting report has much more assumption in it than most of what I write.  With a prospect like Jose Altuve, it’s needed because there’s simply not another player to compare him to.  In all honesty, the easy out is to simply write Altuve off as a AAAA-utility type at the major league level due to his lack of size.  However, if Jose Altuve really was his listed Baseball Reference height/weight of 6’1″, 185 lbs., we’d be discussing a surefire top-100 prospect and one of the top-5 position prospects I scouted in 2010.  So while I can’t say he will ever be an impact talent, to rule out a scenario where he does not at least become a second division starter and instant fan favorite would be irresponsible of me.

Next season, Altuve’s height might very well leave him unprotected in the 2011 Rule-5 draft.  Should he have some success in double-A next season, I can definitely envision a scenario where he is snatched up in the major league phase.  I for one would be in line to purchase an Altuve jersey and I suspect the cult idol status he is all-but-certain to attain will not only be an on-field win, but financial win as well.

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South Atlantic League MVP J.D. Martinez crushed to the tune of .362/.433/.598 in just 88 games before being promoted to the Texas League.  And while this moved him from 20th round afterthought to sleeper worth mentioning, Martinez’ play in double-A  is what has truly sparked the prospect conversation about the young outfielder.  With a .302/.357/.407 line against age appropriate competition, his 50-game sample has earned some legitimate prospect cred.

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Physical Projection: Martinez being listed at 6’3″, 175 lbs. is a head scratcher.  He appears to be at least 200 lbs. and is fully developed from a physical standpoint.  And while he is mostly lean muscle, his athleticism is “fringe” at best and will only degrade further with age as he already runs like a much older player.

Offense: In reviewing Martinez’ batting practice swings versus those in live at bats, I noticed differences which force me to question his ultimate power potential.  Martinez has a flat swing plane and drifts onto his front foot in game action.  While I personally did not have the size or hitting ability of Martinez, my approach was similar in college and it definitely limited power against all but pitchers except those I was significantly better than.  I think Martinez experienced quite a bit of this as a 22-year old playing against younger, less advanced competition.  At higher levels, he may begin cheating a little more which will take a bite out of his power numbers.  Like a scout I spoke to this season said, “unless you are Frank Thomas, I don’t want to see you hitting off of your front foot.”

In batting practice, Martinez stays back well and keeps his hands inside the ball better than most hitters I’ve seen.  I always love seeing the bat knob pulled right to the hip which allows for strong wrist snap.  However, I wonder if the pause in the back of his load limits his power at all as he hit many line drives in batting practice, but few with real authority.  In most cases, one wants to see more fluidity built into the timing mechanism.  Of course most, if not all prospects have much cleaner swings in batting practice, but Martinez’ offensive upside really grows if his in game approach merges more with what is evident in batting practice.

Defense: Martinez needing to be hidden on defense is more of an accepted fact rather than speculation at this point.  I included him at number four in my first base rankings and have read a move to left field is eminent.  In game action, he simply does not move well and nothing in his defensive game stood out as particularly positive.  Martinez is simply a bat first prospect who will have to hit quite a bit to succeed.

Speed: I was able to pull a solid 30 on the 20/80 scale off of video leaving him a below average runner.  If anything, Martinez will continue to slow down over time leaving him a player who will clog the basepaths.

While this report may seem pretty scathing, it’s important to remember Martinez is a 20th round college player from the 2009 draft who is already productive offensively in double-A.  Since being drafted, his professional line sits at .340+/.400+/.550+ in just over 800 professional at bats.  For an organization known for drafting talent with disastrous results, J.D. Martinez is a tremendous find.  Even if he becomes merely a bench player at the big league level who can pinch hit and chip in a little as a first base/left fielder, he becomes an asset at the major league minimum when veteran players with similar skill sets earn 3-4 times as much in annual salary.

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Earlier this season, I had the opportunity to catch a start by Houston Astros prospect Tanner Bushue.  Entering 2010, the former second rounder was ranked as the second best pitching prospect in the system behind 2009 Lexington Legend hurler Jordan Lyles.  While Bushue did not disappoint from a projection standpoint, his present stuff was more reminiscent of a control artist and not the young power pitcher he was billed as.

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Physical Projection: If not for Zack Wheeler of the San Francisco Giants, Bushue would be the most projectable pitching prospect I’ve seen this season.  At 6’4″ and 190 lbs. or so, Bushue is long and lean, but possesses a trunk which should allow him to gain size through his core.  An excellent athlete, his motion is amongst the simplest I’ve seen at the level.  Bushue’s low effort delivery generates easy arm whip, but his explosion is limited due to his not being fully developed physically.  With increased strength, it’s easy to see his adding additional velocity as he matures.

Mound Presence: What impressed me most about Bushue were his bullpens.  Working from the stretch, Bushue repeatedly threw the changeup with a focus rarely seen from teenage pitchers.  At a time where most pitchers simply go through the motions, Bushue pitched with purpose becoming visibly annoyed when unable to deliver the pitch to the outer black.  His professionalism and work ethic were refreshing and far beyond his years.

In game action, Bushue punched the clock and went to work.  While he wasn’t particularly efficient due to fastball command which was average to a tick below, Bushue consistently fought out of jams using his fastball/curveball mix to keep hitters off balance.  Bushue’s ability to navigate out of tight spots is yet another sign of maturity as a pitcher.  Once the body catches up the the mindset, look out!

Fastball: At 87-88 MPH throughout, his fastball velocity was significantly less than what had been reported in draft circles.  With velocity a couple of MPH below average for a righty, Bushue had to rely on command/control to be effective.  While not perfect, he was able to move the pitch in and out with some success.  Many of his hits allowed were due to leaving the pitch up, but he was generally able to leverage his height and create downward plane on the pitch.

Curveball: At 69-72 MPH, Bushue’s curveball featured a big, slow 12-6 break.  He was able to keep the pitch at the knees for most of the outing painting the outside corner repeatedly.  While it may be due to a lack of velocity, Bushue’s curveball had more depth than any other pitcher I’ve seen this season.  If he can refine the offering up to create tighter break, it could wind up a plus pitch.

Changeup: Not thrown in game action, Bushue feverishly worked on the pitch from the stretch in his pre-game bullpen, and then again during side work at batting practice.  In development, the pitch was wildly inconsistent and he looked to be aiming the change instead of throwing it.  While the pitch has a long ways to go, Bushue’s understanding the need to develop the pitch is a great first step towards success.

Pitchers like Tanner Bushue are a great example as to why I do my best to avoid prospect reports of players I plan on scouting.  Had I expected to see 94 MPH with a hammer curveball as had been reported, I would have probably left the park extremely disappointed.  While his fastball/curveball combination was not nearly as advanced as draft reports made them out to be, his physical projection leaves quite a bit to dream on.  In many respects, Bushue resembled a poor man’s Casey Kelly with less polish and secondary pitch development.  As he matures, Bushue should grow into a number four starter with 200+ inning potential.  However, his makeup is a big “X-Factor” for me as players with his work ethic are much more likely to surpass expectations.

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Heading into the 2010 season, Houston Astros shortstop prospect Jiovanni Mier was on my short list of players I simply had to see.  The 21st pick in the 2009 draft, Mier posted strong power numbers in the Appalachian League leading which led to top-100 rankings and Nomar Garciaparra comparisons. By the conclusion of the four-game set, Mier had underwhelmed to the point of questioning his prospect status and how much, if any, his bat will play at upper levels.

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Physical Projection: Mier looks every bit of his listed 6’2″, 175 lbs. He’s lean and well-proportioned leading me to believe future weight gain will be evenly distributed giving him a better chance of staying at shortstop long term than most prospects I see at the level. A very fluid athlete, his smooth movements, especially on the infield, are a thing of beauty. However, Mier lacks explosion and it shows in all aspects of his game.

Hitting: Jiovanni Mier features an athletic stance with a slightly open front foot and his weight shifted onto his back leg.  With no stride, he does not shift his weight well leading to more thuds than cracks coming off of the bat.  Limited offensively, he profiles as an 8-9 hitter due to a lack of present power as he struggled to guide balls out of the infield. With his having trouble keeping his hands inside the ball, his inability to throw the bat head caused him to be overpowered by average fastballs inside.

While mechanics can be fixed, my primary concern about Mier was a perceived lack of strength which severely limits his future power projection.  I would struggle to call him a future double-digit home run hitter as it stands now and wonder how much an additional 20-25 pounds of muscle would make a difference.  Bat speed and wrist snap can improve some with added strength, but the hit tool has a very long way to go for me to become a buyer.

Defense: Relatively untested, Mier had little problem making the routine plays and chipped in a couple of extremely smooth feeds on double play opportunities.  While I did not see Mier in a situation where he had to really flash his arm strength, it would be difficult for me to project it as above average.  Seeing his lateral movement tested would have been helpful as many average runners at shortstop struggle to cover the ground needed to stay at the position long term.

Speed: Having clocked Mier at 4.3 seconds from home to first, his speed is a solid 50 on the 20-80 scale.  He will likely settle in as a slightly below average runner at the position with little stolen base ability.  However, Mier is a smart player who should be able to maximize whatever speed he does have on the basepaths.

Jiovanni Mier ranks as one of the more disappointing prospects I’ve seen at this point in terms of name value versus tools and production.  I expected to see the next “Nomar”, but Mier fell far short of those expectations in every way except for the physical resemblance.  Going forward, Mier will need to revamp his hitting mechanics to incorporate more lower body and keep his hands inside the ball.  Currently, he projects as a weak hitter with some infield chops, but line drive gap power is not out of the question if everything breaks correctly with his development.

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Ross Seaton (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K) – A supplemental 3rd round pick in the 2008 draft, Seaton was ranked the 28th best prospect pre-draft by Baseball America. Said to have a plus fastball and slider, he was considered to be the next in a long line of big Texas righties. However, his 3.96 FIP and 13.2% K% leaving him looking more like a soft tossing control artist than the power pitcher he was billed to be.

Physique and Athleticism: Every bit of his listed 6’4″, 215 lbs, Seaton’s physical appearance certainly fit the bill of the prototypical right-handed power pitcher. While well-proportioned, his legs and upper body have room for additional muscle which could help a relatively average fastball. His movements were somewhat mechanical and his arm action resembled more of a catapult motion than fluid arm action. His arm speed was also just average and he didn’t seem to be generating the power one would expect from a pitcher his size.

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Mound Presence: The first two words which come to mind are “poised” and “relaxed”. He worked out of trouble the entire evening and remained unflappable. Seaton showed little if any emotion on the mound and could have easily passed for an older, more mature prospect.

Fastball: Scouting reports claim Seaton can hit 94 on the radar gun. On this occasion, he topped out at 91 MPH with his 4-seamer and was consistently in the 88-90 MPH range. Seaton also mixed in a 2-seamer at 85-86 MPH. Both pitches broke in on the hands of right-handed hitters. The movement was sharp and late as the pitch crossed the plate. It was also his most hittable offering as Mets hitters took advantage early in the count.

Slider: In the bullpen, the pitch broke slightly down and away from right-handed hitters. Unlike other pitchers I’ve seen who throw more of a “slurvy” pitch with bigger movement, Seaton threw a true slider which complemented his tailing fastball well. However, while the break on the pitch was quick, it lacked bite which goes a long way towards explaining both his low K% and GB%. At this point, it’s simply not an out pitch.

Change Up - Seaton showed enough confidence in the pitch to throw it on back-to-back occasions during the game. At 75-76 MPH, the pitch was 12-15 MPH slower than his best fastball which is significantly slower than the ideal 8-10 MPH difference pitchers want.

Seaton’s solid, but unspectacular performance was a bit disappointing overall. He showed the poise of a top pick, but I did not see the raw stuff which made him the 28th best draft prosect less than a year earlier. His mechanics also worried me some as I have never seen a pitcher with such a profound stiff arm when extending in his throwing motion. It looked unnatural and made me wonder if it was impeding his arm speed and will limit his velocity. I would put Seaton in the 3rd tier of young starting pitchers I’ve seen this year behind the likes of Manuel Banuelos, Stolmy Pimentel, Jeurys Familia, and a handful of others. If I had to rate the ten best in order, my rough estimate is that Seaton would find himself in the 8-10 range.

Jay Austin (2-5, 2B, 3 R, SB) – At 18, the Houston Astros aggressively promoted Jay Austion to the Sally after posting a paltry .198/.277/.236 line while stealing 14 bases in 20 attempts. Currently, Austin sports a .224/.281/.279 including 8 steals in 16 attempts; Not quite the table setter the Astros expected when he was drafted 56th overall in the 2008 draft. However, he was arguably the best player on the field the evening I watched him play as he logged two hits, a stolen base, and three runs scored in leading Lexington to victory. Maybe I saw Austin at his absolute best, nonetheless, it was a glimpse into what Austion could be.

Physique – His listed height of 5’11″ seemed about right as I sat just a few feet away from him watching Ross Seaton warm up in the bullpen. He looked lean and strong with the ability to possibly pack 10-15 more pounds of muscle onto his frame without losing much speed. An excellent athlete, he’s definitely more tools than production at this point and will likely need ample time to adjust to professional baseball.

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Offense – A pure speedster, Austin has a good understanding of his job at the plate. He burned the a shallow playing Gnats left fielder for a double, took another pitch for a line drive to left center field, and hit a couple of ground balls up the middle. Austin’s bat control was advanced for his age and level, and I’m surprised the player I watched has struggled to remain above the Mendoza line throughout his young career. One concern is his lack of pop as he doesn’t project to hit for much, if any power. What adjustments will Austin make now that outfielders are starting to really play shallow. From a statistical standpoint, his K% dropping 11.2% from rookie level to A, as well as a seemingly low career BABIP of .282, Austin might just start clicking sooner rather than later.

Speed – Austin’s struggles stealing bases may come from a slow first step. Once at full speed, he’s as fast as they come, but it did take him a few steps to get the wheels moving. During the game, he scored easily on a single which would have been, at best a bang bang play for most baserunners. He also scored easily from first on a double and stole a base with ease. Expect Austin’s stolen base percentages to improve with experience as stealing bases is more of an acquired skill than many understand.

Defense – With plenty of speed to burn, Austin is able to cover quite a bit of ground. In game action, he charged a routine single and attempted to throw an advancing runner out. The one throw was enough for me to seriously question Austin’s arm strength and his ability to have even an average arm in the future.

Austin’s statistics don’t tell the whole story about his game. He simply needs time for his athleticism to translate into production. At 18, he could even repeat the Sally in 2010 and be young for the league. Patience will be key for the Astros….and prospect junkies as Austin might not be ready for top prospect status until 2011.