Former Boston Red Sox first round pick Reymond Fuentes recently found a new home with the San Diego Padres Organization as a key piece in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  In posting a .270/.328/.377 line in with Greenville of the South Atlantic League, he displayed a line drive stroke and speed to burn from the bottom half of the batting order.  Having played the 2010 season as a 19-year old, Fuentes is still years away from San Diego.  However, it’s never to early to discuss his strengths and weaknesses and how he may fit into the Padres future plans.

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Physical Projection: Listed at 6′, 160 lbs., Fuentes has some muscle definition, but is very thin through the calves and forearms making it difficult to predict future growth.  As he matures, any size he is able to add should be distributed evenly as his core is well-proportioned in comparison to the rest of his body.  This also bodes well for his maintaining athleticism as other high school draftees who were expected to be “speedsters” (See Tim Beckham), saw disproportionate growth through their bottom halves sap a portion of their athletic ability.  I fully expect Fuentes to keep his speed. However, I consider reports of his Fuentes’ ability to add future power somewhat questionable at this point.

Offense: In the half dozen games I watch Fuentes play, I saw a few “big league” swings which left me envisioning a slasher with moderate gap-to-gap power at the big league level.  In one at bat, he laced a 2-strike pitch into the left-center field gap for a double which was truly a thing of beauty.  On the flip side, I also saw a Fuentes whose swing became very long at times struggled with fringe breaking pitches.  On occasion, he showed a little “leakage” and drifted onto his front foot.  Additionally, he laid off very few close pitches and displayed more “swing-and’miss” than one wants to see from a potential leadoff hitter.  It was definitely a mixed bag, but enough to rank him as one of the 6-8 best position prospects I had the chance to scout.  I would be remiss not to mention that I had at least one scouting contact who was higher on Fuentes than myself and felt comfortable projecting increased power production as he matured.

Defense: In terms of range and the ability to cover from gap-to-gap, I have no qualms about Fuentes’ ability to remain in center field over the long haul.  However, his arm strength appeared to be below average leaving me to wonder just how much of a liability it would be at the major league level.  Of course a shift to left field facilitated by a lack of arm strength would be a huge hit to his prospect value as his skill set is that of an up-the-middle player.

Speed: After a season in which he went 42/47 in stolen base attempts, I was one of the few to actually see him thrown out at third base.  I pulled multiple home-to-first times in the 4.1ish range making him a plus runner.  In addition to his speed, Fuentes is also a strong baserunner who read pitchers well and was extremely efficient on the bases.  It was the most polished part of his all-around game.

After seeing Fuentes a number of times, I was a little surprised to see him involved in a deal for a superstar like Adrian Gonzalez.  Going forward, he should advance one level at a time with an expected ETA of 2013-2014.  While I don’t see him as a table setting leadoff hitter at the big league level, I can see him as an 8-9 guy with enough offensive skills to turn the lineup over nicely.  I know Carlos Beltran comps are floating around out there due to their being relatives, but I just can’t envision a scenario where Fuentes’ power blossoms the way Beltran’s did in the following years based on his physical attributes and flat swing plane.

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Dexter Carter (8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K) – One of the biggest questions of the 2009 minor league season is how much weight to put into a 22-year old in full season A ball leading all of MILB in strikeouts. With 138 strikeouts in 111 innings, Carter’s strikeout totals jump off the page. A 2.76 FIP and 4.31 K/BB ratio is also impressive. However, as a 13th round pick and older prospect, does his repertoire match the numbers?

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Physique and Athleticism: At 6’6″, 195 lbs. he has a great pitcher’s frame, but lacks any real size through the legs and shoulders. At 22, I can’t help but question if he can pack 25-30 lbs of muscle as an older prospect with his lean build. His arm action was free and easy, and he didn’t overthrow at all during the outing.

Mound Presence: Untouched throughout the start, Carter had reason to be calm and collected. He generally threw “book” using his fastball to set up his curve which led to a number of strikeouts. He was focused and efficient, and after reading about his struggles in college, I can see why they are bringing him along slowly.

Fastball: At 88-92, the fastball was an average offering he locates well, but lacks the consistent velocity and movement to profile as a potential plus pitch without his adding quite a bit of strength. In the bullpen, the pitch had tail in towards right-handers, but it flattened out considerably during the game. Carter worked the fastball in and out with success. However, I didn’t see the arm speed or velocity out of his hand I expected a man of his size to produce. He may be able to add a couple of more ticks in velocity should he improve his leg drive off of the mound.

Curve Ball: Used to punch out a number of Sand Gnats hitters including Jefry Marte who looked downright silly, Carter’s curve ball was his best pitch flashing plus when down in the zone. Working in the upper 70′s, the pitch simply fell off the table and was too much for hitters at this level. However, he did drag his arm a big on a handful of offerings causing the pitch to flatten out and stay up in the zone. With his height, I’d imagine keeping a strong downward plane can be difficult at times.

Change Up: A distant third in terms of the strength of his repertoire, the 78-81 MPH change has decent location at times, but lacks the movement and consistency to project as anymore than a borderline average offering. His arm action also slows up from time to time tipping the pitch and causing the pitch to remain up in the zone.

Going forward, Dexter Carter will always be a family favorite due to his being gracious enough to give my son his warm up pitch. However, his pure stuff alone profiles as more of a bullpen arm than a true starting pitching prospect. With significant improvement on his change up, he could be more, but at 22 already, his still being a work in progress means he will have to take a big step forward this offseason to show he’s ready for a AA assignment.

Entering the 2009 season, Anthony Rizzo was arguably the biggest wild card in the Boston Red Sox organization. A former 6th round pick, only cancer has kept baseballs safe from the slugging first baseman whose minor league career triple slash line of .314/.376/.476 is on par with many of the best prospects in baseball. The only question with Rizzo is how much room for improvement is left? At only 19, it seems like a silly question, but Rizzo’s size leaves little room for further projection and his all around game is already polished.

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Physique - A man among men? Rizzo was more linebacker than baseball player and looked every bit of his listed 6 foot 3 inches and 220 pounds. Had he been an international free agent, I would definitely be asking for a birth certificate as he looked older than his listed age. He moved well for his size, but at nineteen, he should. As the years pass, it’s going to be difficult for him to keep his athleticism.

Offense - Already a polished product, Rizzo has an athletic stance and stands tall in the batters box. With a classic left handed sweeping swing, it looked a bit long at times as he fought to catch up to 90 mph fastballs. His movements are fluid and works to keep his elbow tucked. He’s also very comfortable working deep counts. During one at bat, he fouled off at least half a dozen pitches before hitting a hard single back up the middle. Strikeouts are a concern at this point which might be explained by his being caught off balance on breaking balls. one drawback is his polish and size which leads me to believe his power ceiling may ultimately be limited. At a corner infield position, this may weigh heavily on his prospect status going forward.

Defense - Rizzo only manned first base for one of the three Greenville games I attended and seemed about average for the position. His size could limit his lateral movement and range in the future, but it’s fine for now. His arm was also above average for the position.

Speed - Rizzo’s speed was good for a player with his physique, average to a tick below when compared to all minor leaguers. While not a base clogger, he will never be a player who chips in double digit steals or can score from first on a double in the gap.

I mentioned signing Rizzo to my minor league system in a dynasty league I play in after dealing Freddie Freeman. Both players have a great deal in common and Rizzo being available definitely lessened the blow of losing one of the games best first base prospects. The primary difference between the two players is Rizzo’s polish offensively leaving Freeman with a slightly higher ceiling considering his success even though he has load issues to hammer out. Rizzo also strikes out a bit much at this point and needs to be more aggressive early in counts as he is susceptible to breaking balls.

In 2010, Rizzo will likely be a borderline top 100 prospect and firmly entrenched in the Boston Red Sox top ten. He profiles as a solid all-around first baseman who does everything well, but lacks a standout tool.

I have been high on Casey Kelly since he spurned an offer to play quarterback for my Tennessee Volunteers and signed with the Red Sox for three million dollars as an over slot first round pick in the 2008 draft. After signing, he focused on shortstop posting a .215/.255/.331 line which, in turn, took some of the luster off of Kelly’s star.

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In 2009, however, Kelly has turned the page and his focus has been on the mound. Through nine starts, his 1.12 ERA and 39/9 K/BB ratio are near flawless and his success has made him one of the better stories in all of minor league baseball.

Prior to his promotion to Salem (A+), I was able to watch him pitch. I had the opportunity to speak with one of his relatives who was at the game. In speaking with her, I was able to gain a little insight into his character and his makeup seems stellar.

Apparently he felt terrible about Coach Fulmer from Tennessee losing his position as head coach and felt some remorse about not being there to possibly help out a terrible quarterback situation.

As far as his current success on the mound, the rumored 100 inning cap I’m reading all over the web was reported to me as somewhere in the 70′s. Not lacking confidence, he’s apparently excited about playing infield and still sees himself as a shortstop first at this point.

With that said, a soft hitting shortstop with a 90 MPH fastball, and two potential plus breaking pitches is not likely to be a shortstop for long. I was impressed by Kelly’s poise and repertoire, but his promotion to Salem will be a true test of his mettle.

Physique: Kelly may have been a touch shorter than 6’3″. He’s lean and athletic and has room to add size through the shoulders and lower body. Arguably the best athlete on the field, his movements were very fluid although he did short arm the ball a bit like a quarterback would while pitching.

Mound Presence: Confident, but reserved, Kelly’s start was his worst as a professional to date. In seeing Kelly’s first time facing adversity as a professional pitcher, he was unfazed by hits and earned runs allowed and seemed intensely focused on the next pitch. Mature beyond his years, Kelly’s polish as a player really showed through.

Fastball: Four-seamer was 86-90 MPH throughout and was frequently 88. A free and easy release could allow him to add a couple of more miles should his lower body fill out more. His ball didn’t seem to have much movement, but he was able to spot it in and out at will. Probably his least impressive offering, he showed advanced pitch ability and was able to successfully use the fastball to set up his stronger offerings. He had some success expanding the strike zone as a handful of hitters took an opportunity to complain to the home plate umpire. It was, however, his most hittable pitch as I could tell a number of Gnats hitters were sitting “dead red” and swinging at the first fastball they saw.

Curve ball: Rivaled Andrew Brackman as the best breaking pitch I’ve seen this year. It was solid average throughout the game and flashed plus to the point of being a true wipe out offering. He was comfortable throwing the pitch any count and it was consistently in the 76-78 MPH range. His arm action on the pitch was also excellent as it was very difficult for the Gnats hitters to read the pitch coming out of his hand. The swings against his curve ball were ugly, so a handful of hitters simply refused to offer at it.

Change up: At 84 MPH, I originally thought the pitch was a slider from my vantage point past the third base dugout due to the pitches downward movement. In order to get a closer look, I spent an inning behind home plate trying to figure out exactly what the pitch was. An usher next to me thought it was a split and I was able to rule out a slider because the pitch not only had significant drop, but wicked fade as well. Change ups with that kind of movement are very hard to come by at this level. My only reservation would be the 4-6 mile difference from his best fastball as most would consider a best case scenario to be an 8-10 MPH difference.

Overall, on a bad night, Kelly was still the best prospect I’ve had the opportunity to watch this season. His polish and repertoire were extremely rare for a player in the SAL. At this point, he does not project as a true ace due to an average fastball, but he could move very quickly and settle in as a number two or three starter. The only keeping Kelly from being the first high school pitcher from the 2008 draft class to reach the bigs is his desire to continue playing shortstop. After his performance on the mound, the Red Sox will likely deem Kelly too valuable to continue their two-way experiment.