Everytime you hear a pregame posteason show, you’ll hear the same basic tenants of a “winning ball club.”  Key hits, strong starter performance and of course, a strong and deep bullpen. I think bullpens are the key to the modern game.

I’m not necessarily talking about having multiple LOOGY’s to get all the southpaws in lineup, but just having a deep bullpen to begin with. Think about it, what in baseball is more agonizing than seeing your bullpen waste a great starting pitching performance? The only thing worse than a blown save is giving up a walk off hit. As an A’s fan, I still have nightmares from the 2006 postseason.

The explosion of 7 and even 8 man bullpens in recent years is a testament to relief pitching being the key to games. (For the record, I’m not absolutely convinced that this is the ideal 25-man roster construction, but that’s a different post for a different day). Your team needs every favorable matchup it can get, no matter how small. Let’s take a look at a pair of significant season-to-season turnarounds in recent years:

In just one short offseason the Devil Rays became just the Rays, and with that exorcism the bullpen woes of 2007 also departed Tampa Bay. The 2008 squad generated more strike outs and gave up fewer hits and home runs. While some of that can be attributed to luck and better defense, I’d still say that qualifies as a pretty big turnaround, and the WPA reflects that. By going from nearly “worst to first,” the Rays bullpen helped shorten games and make sure late close games were closed out.

In 2007, TB had 21 blown saves, 5th most in baseball. In 2008, only 16 blown saves, tied for 4th fewest in the MLB. The Tampa front office recognized a major weakness and spent that offseason accordingly by bringing in Troy Percival. Percival, addition with the maturation of J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour, helped turn around the Rays. Although Percival didn’t quite live up to expectations (or his salary), the bullpen did help the Rays reach the World Series ’08.  If you need further convincing, observe a more recent example:

Here we see a little more skill-based change; that is to say only strikeouts, walks and home runs. The shift in win probability wasn’t as stark, but the results and consequent WAR are served the same. Again, the combination of free agent spending and accurate front office evaluation are critical as the Diamondbacks brought in J.J. Putz on a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal, traded for David Hernandez and then at the deadline traded for submariner and groundball specialist Brad Ziegler.

All too often baseball fans and even baseball insiders are quick to write off bullpens as failed starters, career journeymen and the like. But as we’ve seen, both of these teams exploited their competitor’s undervaluation of the player pool.

Looking ahead to next year, the Angels and Royals are two teams that are primed to improve their bullpens, and possibly make the jump from watching baseball in October to actually playing it. I wouldn’t say that building a bullpen is the number one thing a club can do to turn around its franchise. The bullpen is just one small factor when it comes to team building, but apparently not as small as we think.

Huge kudos to Joe Pawlikowski for his FanGraphs peice earlier in the year year for inspiring this article

David considers himself a student of the school of sabermetrics. As a rule, he doesn’t discount anyones word until it’s disproven, or cite any statistic until it’s verified. A cautioned optimistic, he loves watching, learning, and studying the intricacies of baseball.

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Hat tip to Tableizer! for Excel to HTML tables

This story is about Matt Moore, a six-foot-two inch left-hander with an electric arm. Moore gets tremendous whip and extension, sitting often reaching 96-97 MPH on his fastball. Reports even have him hitting triple-digits in short spurts. This pitch features excellent arm side run and Moore’s slightly-across his body release point adds deception.

Moore has a wipeout ‘slurve’ and an emerging change-up that features excellent fade at times. Moore’s ‘slurve’ has the look of a slider, but he calls it a curveball. Regardless of how one defines it, few would disagree it’s simply ‘disgusting’ in the most endearing of ways.

His frame also leaves plenty of room for growth, and his mechanics are clean and repeatable. ‘Easy’ is a relative term in pitching, because you have to throw with intent to throw at the speeds Moore reaches, but his motion is very ‘easy’ and almost remarkable given the velocity he can produce.

With Moore’s stuff and utter disregard for minor league hitters (594 K’s in 422 2/3 innings in his last three seasons), there’s no point in keeping him in the minors for further seasoning. However, without going to a 6 man rotation (which is something I wouldn’t put past Joe Maddon), there isn’t currently a rotation spot available for Moore. James Shields and Wade Davis are signed (counting club options) through 2014 and 2017 respectively, and Jeremy Hellickson is battling for a Rookie of the Year award. David Price is arbitration eligible after this year and will become expensive through either arbitration or contract extension. Right-hander Jeff Niemann is a more than serviceable No. 4-5 starter, but isn’t a good fit as a bullpen arm.

Unless another organization basically doubles the package the Cubs gave the Rays to get Matt Garza this past winter, one can bet on Moore being part of the plans in Tampa as he’s one of the more untouchable prospects in baseball. This would leave Niemann as the odd man out, which could bring a nice package for the Rays already deep farm system, as well as open up the much needed rotation spot for Moore.

Moore’s stuff would play up as a bullpen arm, or even closer, but keeping him in the bullpen would be a waste of his talents. The Rays’ developmental plan for their pitchers is best described as “slow and steady”, and Moore has been no exception. Moore is the next beneficiary of their development plan, and will be in Tampa to stay as soon as a spot is freed.

The Tampa Bay Rays, as an organization are good at many things. From maximizing value on low dollar signings to producing top flight pitching prospects (and bringing along said prospects with the speed of a Bengie Molina triple), to manipulating the draft to have an absurd ten of the first sixty picks in the 2011 draft. The Rays organization just seems to do everything well except have consistently high volumes of home attendance, but that’s best left for another day.

Steve Carter currently works as a baseball/softball hitting instructor and is Senior Scout at ProjectProspect.com. He is also a former college baseball player.

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Jacob Jefferies and Mike Sheridan both have quite a bit in common from a baseball perspective. As college hitters with advanced approaches, the Rays selected both within the first five rounds of the 2008 draft to fill immediate organizational needs. However, 2009 did not turn out exactly as the Rays planned as both prospects disappointed at Bowling Green and their offensive strengths may have wound up working against them on the professional level.

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Jefferies posted a .261/.326/.359 triple slash line as a sometimes catcher who also spent a significant amount of time as a designated hitter. His 8% K% jumps off of the page, as does his .268 BABIP. His 7.6% BB% is somewhat surprising considering his having the reputation of an “advanced” college bat.

In game action, he showed a level, line drive swing and the ability to work the gaps. However, his sweeping swing does not project much power for a prospect his size and will likely not play should he not stick at catcher. Behind the dish, Jefferies did not have any glaring weaknesses, but his size and perceived lack of mobility are an issue going forward. And with his splitting time behind the plate with a non-prospect, the Rays may see the writing on the wall too.

At .238/.278/.391, Sheridan showed some power potential, but struggled through a miserable 2009 season. With a BABIP of .229, he should improve, but his 5.3% BB% is terrible for a college hitter who turned 22 during the season. Similar to Jefferies, his 8.6% K% will keep prospect analysts intrigued for at least one more season. In Sheridan’s case, his ability to make contact may be working directly against his on base skills which is a net negative.

An athletic crouch and load served as a precursor to one of the shorter left-handed swings in the “Sally”. Sheridan is able to create backspin and could surge should he adjust his approach and learn to work deeper counts and wait for better pitches to drive. In speaking to his brother at a game, Sheridan’s philosophy was to hit the first decent fastball he saw. This needs to change! The issue is Sheridan is is currently 22 1/2 leading me to question whether it is ultimately possible.

Overall, the trifecta of Tim Beckham, Jefferies, and Sheridan represent key pieces of a rather drab 2008 draft class. With hindsight being 20/20, I can comfortably say the Rays would surely take a do-over if they had those picks again.

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Tim Beckham is a glowing example of why I decided to only write prospect reports on players I see in person. In heading to the ballpark to watch Beckham, I expected to see a sleek, athletic “Hot Rod” and left without seeing it.

I wrote this piece a few weeks back comparing Beckham and Red Sox shortstop prospect Oscar Tejeda. Is Beckham a better player, sure, but is he ten times better than a borderline top 200 prospect? No. That’s the problem with Beckham. He’s good, but as the first overall pick in the draft and six million dollar man, I expected to see future greatness.

Demeanor: Beckham’s maturity was impressive considering his young age and enormous bonus. During game one, he served as the designated hitter with the responsibility of warming up the left-fielder. In taking pictures down the left-field line, I witnessed Beckham toss a ball to a young child pre-game and hustle out to handle his between inning duties after looking downright awful on a strikeout to end an inning early in the game. An immature player might have taken the opportunity to pout and it speaks volumes about his character.

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In game two, the brother of a Bowling Green player who happened to be roommates of both Beckham brothers struck up a conversation with me. He mentioned his brother thoroughly enjoyed rooming with both Beckhams and talked about how down to earth both were. It sounded as if the money and notoriety which comes with being the number one overall pick had no negative impact on the younger Beckham which is great to hear.

Physique and Athleticism: When seeing Beckham in person, I realized just how much bloggers around the country were going off of high school scouting reports. To reading Beckham runs a 6.3 second 60-yard dash, to him being described as lean and projectable, I was expecting a much different player physically. Had I been a random fan, I would have assumed Beckham was a pitcher, not a hitter, and especially not a shortstop. His shoulders were undefined and smaller than the rest of his upper body. His back was broad, and only widened to the hips which were close to fully developed and muscular. After standing three feet away from Beckham, my thoughts turned to how his large lower half is affecting his agility and speed.

Defense: Untested for most of the game, his only fielding chance was a ball to his backhand side deep in in the 5/6 hole. With ease, he fielded the ball and fired a strike to first base. It was a glimpse of what made him a premium prospect, but did little to answer questions raised by his build. In hearing chatter about his not sticking at shortstop, but not being sure exactly why, I can only assume his lateral movement has been affected by the increase in size and he has lost range.

Speed: With ten stolen bases in eighteen attempts, it’s hard to envision Beckham as the forty stolen base threat he was expected to be. With his build, I’d be surprised if he ever steals more than 15-20 bases annually, if that. Beckham was far from the burner I had previously read about and seen video of.

Offense: With three singles in the twin bill, Beckham showed lightning quick hands through the zone and an easy, fluid swing. He tattooed fastballs early in the count and did his best to hide his difficulty with breaking balls stemming from a long load and swing path. In watching subsequent video of Beckham, my thoughts are the length of his swing is causing him to guess on pitches leaving him out front on off speed stuff. He’s going to have to learn to keep his weight back and take his hands directly to the ball to better utilize his wrists and become more consistent. The raw ability is there for Beckham to be a high average hitter, but his swing and batting eye need significant refinement. I doubt his power will ever be more than average.

Amongst the few glimpses of what made Beckham the first overall pick in the 2008 draft were enough questions for me to downgrade his prospect status from pre-season elite to borderline top 100, if not lower. With his ability to stay at shortstop in doubt, along with questions surrounding his speed, is he a five tool talent, or tweener who may be forced off of the position which made him so valuable in the first place. As 2009 comes to a close, the Rays simply can’t be pleased with the early on field results of their six million dollar man.