Cubs Pitcher Ryan Dempster Leaves Blueprint For Dodgers Prospect Nathan Eovaldi

Baseball, a game rich in history and precedent, incorporates a number of statistical yardsticks that “know it all” pundits, prognosticators and, occasionally, scouts use to appraise, assign value to, and project players. What we aim to accomplish with this column is to employ some of those same metrics to provide our readers a fair MLB comp for up-and-coming players in the SAL and elsewhere around baseball.

Standard sample-size caveats apply. Remember that we’re generally talking about prospects with limited professional experience here. No comp will be perfect and, while we may occasionally go out on a limb, in all cases we’ll strive to frame a reasonable argument based on similar skill sets as viewed through the filter of a sabermetric lens. Or as Sgt. Joe Friday would simply say, “Just the facts, ma’am.” It’s our intent to provide solid analysis and add a touch of STS spin. All disclaimers aside, let’s get started…

First up is Nathan Eovaldi of the Los Angeles Dodgers; a favorite of Scouting the Sally and a guy we think comps well to Chicago Cubs stalwart Ryan Dempster. Both are solidly built right-handers with easy deliveries who rely heavily on their fastball/slider combination. We pulled data from an earlier iteration of Dempster (2002) to pair up with Eovaldi:

Both Eovaldi and Dempster began their careers throwing fastballs over 60% of the time though Eovaldi throws his a four-seamer a notch faster than Dempster ever did. Let’s take a look at a number of peripherals for both Eovaldi and the younger Dempster:

We see both Dempster and Eovaldi striking out similar numbers of batters, though it should be noted that Dempster had over 600 IP under his belt entering into the 2002 season. Important for Eovaldi will be his ability to miss bats (SwStrk%); Dempster has always been a respectable strikeout guy (he had already recorded a 200 K season by 2002), and as we can see had a significant advantage at this stage over Eovaldi who is much closer to league average. Eovaldi’s “stuff” may help him maintain a similar K/9 ratio to Dempster however, and he showed decent ability in the minors to generate strikeouts.

Another parallel the Dodgers’ young pitcher shares with Dempster is a relatively low 55% first-pitch strike percentage. Though never super dominant in his career, as he matured Dempster became more proficient and raised his F-Strk% up to league average (~60%). Everybody knows that throwing early strikes to get ahead of hitters is a pitching cornerstone and will be instrumental towards helping Eovaldi improve his efficiency as his career develops. Needless to say, rotation spots are tough to hold onto and careers difficult to scale with a K/BB ratio of 1.35.

Eovaldi will also need to augment his fastball/slider combo with a better curveball or a changeup to help keep hitters off-balance. Dempster developed a solid change-up that eventually became a reasonably effective pitch for him until he abandoned it after the 2007 season; he currently throws a respectable split-finger fastball in its place. Further, considering the number of sliders Eovaldi throws and Dempster’s own injury history (TJ surgery in August ‘03), Eovaldi should consider developing a better third pitch as a form of risk-management.

Now if Eovaldi can only develop a plus Vin Scully impersonation to the level that Dempster mimics Harry Caray, we’d have a real comp on our hands. Good luck with that, Eovaldi…

A lifelong baseball fan and savvy 12-year veteran of high-stakes fantasy baseball leagues, I cut my teeth on Boston’s heartbreaking losses in the late 70′s and 80′s, studied philosophy and critical theory in college, and once convinced a girlfriend that criss-crossing the country visiting ballparks would be good for the relationship. I’ve since relocated to the Hudson Valley, call ‘The Dutch’ my home ballpark and, after putting pen to paper to wax didactic on the multiverse of fantasy sports, have been a regular contributor to FantasyPros911.com.  I look forward to huckleberry pie, data crunching, and adding a metrics-driven spin to Scouting the Sally.

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