Justin Masterson Masters The Ground Ball
When one thinks of a dominating pitching performances this season, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Roy Halladay come to mind among others, but why not Cleveland Indians Justin Masterson? That’s too bad, because he’s been nothing short of elite this year. As a matter of fact, he ranks 7th in all of baseball with a 55.0% GB rate which is fantastic! Just how valuable are ground balls to a pitcher? Important enough that Masterson’s peripherals now place him in pretty elite company.
Before the season started, if I told you that Justin Masterson would rate higher via WAR than Tim Lincecum, what would you have said?
“Well, Lincecum must be hurt!”
or
“You have lost your mind sir.”
I wouldn’t have blamed you for either response because I never would have said it in the first place. Yet here we are, winding down the 2011 season, and by FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement, that is exactly where we stand. Masterson has racked up 5.2 WAR in 32 starts with Lincecum posting 4.5 WAR in 31. Now of course Big Time Timmy Jim could still catch him, but as of now, Masterson holds a fairly strong edge.
With this being Masterson’s second full season as a starter, let’s compare him to another great ground ball inducer from the past decade. Any ideas?
| Pitcher’s 2nd SP Season | GS | IP | K% | BB% | GB Rate | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Masterson* | 32 | 211 1/3 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 55.0% | 3.15 | 3.14 |
| Pitcher X | 35 | 208 | 17.6% | 12.8% | 64.3% | 3.59 | 4.41 |
*Masterson still hasn’t completed his sophomore season, and thus he can continue to accrue numbers.
In the above chart, “Pitcher X” is Brandon Webb circa-2004. Webb managed to burn worms at an even higher rate, with a nearly identical K rate. Yet, Webb’s control plauged him throughout the season posting 17 wild pitches and 11 hit batsmen in addition to his walk total. So far, Masterson is at 5 wild pitches and 9 hit-by-pitch respectively.
One difference needing mention is relative run environment. As of this posting, the current average American League OPS is .719. In 2004, The National League average OPS was .756. Masterson has a better ERA and FIP in this scoring depressed environment is expected, but a secondary storyline of the above chart is just how much walk totals can negatively affect a pitcher’s overall FIP. There are other similarites aside from the statistics alone however. Both pitchers have the following in common:
-Height. Masterson is 6′ 6″ and Webb is 6′ 3″
-Strong Builds, Masterson weighs 250 and Webb 228
-Right handed pitchers
-3/4 arm slot delivery
-Predominantly Sinkerball pitchers.
Based on the similarities both statistically and physically forces me to imagine a Justin Masterson who posts strong stat lines for a years to come. Having completely whiffed this year on Masterson in fantasy baseball, I’m now kicking myself now for it. If you’re in a keeper league, swing a deal in the winter for him. All signs point to Masterson producing going forward. He is quite literally, the next Brandon Webb. Justin Masterson’s success speaks to just how powerful the ground ball can be.
Table via Tableizer!
David considers himself a student of the school of sabermetrics. As a rule, he doesn’t discount anyones word until it’s disproven, or cite any statistic until it’s verified. A cautioned optimistic, he loves watching, learning, and studying the intricacies of baseball.
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