One of the most exciting things about scouting players is monitoring their progress as they continue to move through their respective systems. In Sally Stock Watch, I’ll be taking a look at how prospects I’ve scouted are currently performing and reflect on what has previously been written on Scouting The Sally about those players.

**Clicking the player links will take you to the original reports**

Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros – Altuve’s batting average finally fell below .400 on the season with a 1/4 performance Friday night. In a previous piece I wrote,

if Jose Altuve really was his listed Baseball Reference height/weight of 6’1″, 185 lbs., we’d be discussing a surefire top-100 prospect and one of the top-5 position prospects I scouted in 2010.

Turns out Altuve has decided to make a case for top-100 status anyway and his progress has been exciting to follow. Second base in Houston appears to be a black hole and it now looks as if Altuve could fill that void as early as next season.

Kent Matthes, OF, Colorado Rockies – On the back of a torrid ten game stretch which has seen the Rockies outfield prospect produce a triple slash line of .500/.525/.921, Matthes’ overall numbers currently sit at .324/.363/.609. In a previous piece I wrote,

At this point, Matthes’ rigid swing mechanics and difficulty adjusting to offspeed pitches leaves me doubting whether he can make it out of A-level baseball.

While Matthes’ BABIP is an unsustainable .388 with a painfully low walk rate of just 5%, he has cut his strikeout totals significantly and will probably receive a promotion sooner, rather than later. I’m still not convinced he’s a big leaguer, but he has performed much better than I ever expected.

Stolmy Pimentel, SP, Boston Red Sox – In double-A, the wheels have completely fallen off for the 21-year old right-hander who I scouted in 2009 with Greenville. With a 9.20 ERA across 13 starts including a dreadful 29/19 K/BB ratio with 66 hits allowed in 46 innings pitched, something is really wrong. In a previous piece I wrote,

At 19, he ranks as one of the better pitching prospects in the “Sally” and could move from borderline top 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization to the fast track with improved fastball command.

Entering 2011, Pimentel was on his way after a solid, but unspectacular 2010 season in Salem as a 20-year old. Now, it appears as if a demotion is in order in the hope Pimentel can recover the stuff which made him successful at the lower levels.

Soxprospects.com just posted an interesting piece on Pimentel you should check out.

Arodys Vizcaino, SP, Atlanta Braves – With a promotion to Mississippi, it appears as if Vizcaino is on the fast track to Atlanta. At present, the young right-hander boasts a 2.86 ERA and 64/18 K/BB ratio in 66 innings pitched with only 50 hits allowed. After an injury scare in 2010, Vizcaino is on pace for 120 or so innings pitched which is music to the Braves organization’s ears. In a previous piece I wrote,

My sources were disappointed in his early performance and his sudden turnaround struck many as a surprise. His transition to high-A will be fascinating to watch as he is not nearly as advanced as Julio Teheran, the prospect he is constantly compared to for obvious reasons.

For me, Vizcaino/Teheran is the pitching equivalent to the development of Freeman/Heyward in the Atlanta system. Both performed well at the lower levels before the more polished product shot up the ladder leaving the other behind to adjust.

A scout I spoke to recently mentioned Vizcaino looked like a reliever early on in a recent start, but his breaking ball grew on the scout to the point where his mind was changed by the end of the outing. With seasoned evaluators now believing Vizcaino can stick in the rotation, his prospect status has certainly increased.

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Over the past few seasons, the Boston Red Sox have never been shy about going over slot for amateur talent.  This has led to their building what is arguably the most balanced system in either league as they seem to be at least two to three legitimate prospects deep at every position.  And while they lack elite level prospects like Kansas City with Hosmer, Moustakas, Montgomery, and Lamb, I’d argue there isn’t a team better equipped to deal from depth for a superstar player like Justin Upton.  In the past the Red Sox have been extremely hesitant to deal prospects for help at the big league level to their detriment.  That philosophy backfired pretty soundly in 2010 as injuries to a number of veterans exposed a lack of depth at the big league level, along with a pretty wide gap between the production expected from a Boston Red Sox in order to compete in the AL East and the reality of prospect growing pains.

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It’s common knowledge that the Red Sox have coveted Adrian Gonzalez for awhile now.  Nothing against Gonzalez as he is a superstar and will receive many, many millions once he hits free agency.  But A-Gon will play most of 2011, his final year before free agency, at 29 which leaves him significantly less valuable than Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton due to his already being well into his prime.  Players like Upton rarely, if ever, come available on the trade market and any offers bantered about online are likely an exercise in futility. However, as somebody who has scouted Red Sox prospects over the past couple of seasons, the Boston Red Sox have the goods to land Justin Upton.  And for as nice as it must be to scan your minor league depth chart and be unable to find a weak area, too much “rosterbation” can be a setback in the American League as the Rays and Yankees are always looking to leverage and maximize talent at the big league level.  Beyond the already established major leaguers rumored to be on the Diamondbacks wish list (Bard or Papelbon & Jacoby Ellsbury), which prospects would be a great fit with the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Felix Doubront – He’s the type of starter who may struggle to establish himself in the American League East, but would prove a valuable commodity in a lesser division such as the NL West.  Back-of-the-rotation starters certainly are not sexy, but I’d bet Doubront could chip in the same value right now as Joe Saunders for less than 10% of the cost and continue to do so for a number of seasons.

Jose Iglesias – Likely a season away from being ready to contribute, he’s the best defensive shortstop, and arguably the best defensive player PERIOD at the minor league level.  Adding an Iglesias to the fold would allow the Diamondbacks, who are said to have no interest in dealing Stephen Drew the flexibility of keeping him until Iglesias is ready.  For the Red Sox, they have Marco Scutaro under contact for another season while giving Jed Lowrie an opportunity to prove himself healthy and ready for a starting gig.

Ryan Kalish – He’s the epitome of what Kevin Towers claims to be looking for.  A versatile outfielder, Kalish .294/.382/.502 line between AA and AAA leaves him with little more to prove at the minor league level.  He would fit well as a #7 hitter in that lineup initially, but may force his way into the 2-hole within a season.  Kalish would be a starting outfielder from day one in Arizona for an organization whose fans had a love affair with “grinder” Eric Byrnes a few years back.

Casey Kelly – The top pitching prospect in the organization, Kelly has become rather polarizing considering his scouting reports speak to a pitcher whose stuff is much better than his pedestrian statistical lines.  In 2009, I had the opportunity to scout Kelly and came away very impressed.  I did, however point out that his fastball was,

his most hittable pitch as I could tell a number of Gnats hitters were sitting “dead red” and swinging at the first fastball they saw.

Stolmy Pimentel – Should the Diamondbacks want to hedge their bets and spread their return over a number of prospects who lack the name value of a Casey Kelly, then Pimentel could become a target.  having scouted him in 2009, I’m bullish on his being able to mature into a quality big league starter.

SLEEPER ALERT

Drake Britton – As a 5th player to complete a deal, I could not imagine a more tantalizing target than Drake Britton.  In the Sally, multiple scouts reported his being between 91-95 MPH with one stating he’d rather have Britton in his organization than Colorado Rockies uber-prospect Tyler Matzek.  And while I didn’t have the opportunity to scout him personally, he will rank prominently on my top-Sally prospects list when it is released.

Notably excluded are Red Sox first base prospects Anthony Rizzo and Lars Anderson.  For as valuable as they both are in their own right, it’s the one area where the Diamonbacks have little need.  Brandon Allen and Marc Krauss are enough potential depth at the position for my liking.  Not to mention Matt Davidson who is rumored to be a poor defender at the hot corner.

Surprisingly enough, the Red Sox player I’d be most hesitant about dealing from their perspective is Daniel Bard.  As great as Jonathan Papelbon has been, paying him eight figures to close after his 2010 season is too rich for my blood with Bard ready.

After writing all of this, my best exercise in futility, or trade proposals would be the following depending on whether or not Jacoby Ellsbury is a key piece.

With Ellsbury: Ellsbury, Britton, Doubront, Iglesias, Pimentel

Without Ellsbury: Kalish, Kelly, Doubront, Iglesias, Pimentel

Personally, I’d prefer the scenario without Ellsbury as I consider all five to be solid big league contributors down the road.  With Ellsbury, name value and prior performance come into play which will lead to a lesser prospect return.  For the Red Sox, potentially dealing five of the organizations top-10 prospects in a single deal sounds crazy on the surface, but they have as many as twenty prospects which would rank in the top-10 of lesser organizations.  More than likely, the depth lost from the system would be replaced within a year or two as the Red Sox will do what they do best; sign more players to over slot deals.

For the Diamondbacks, The deal initially nets an outfielder to fill the hole vacated by Upton at the big league level, as well as a major league ready left-handed starter.  Kelly and Iglesias each have ETA’s in 2012, with Pimentel and/or Britton expected later.  And while either group may be void of star players, the number of above average major leaguers a deal like this could net would continue to bear fruit for a number of years and allow them the flexibility to continue turning over the roster in an attempt to further balance it.

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Stolmy Pimentel (5 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB) – Early in the 2009 season, I had circled the Greenville series as a “must see”. Besides Casey Kelly, Red Sox prospect Stolmy Pimentel had garnered quite of prospect hype as an international signing whose bonus ($25,000) made him a bargain basement steal. Fast forward to the off season and Pimentel’s top ten prospect status in the Red Sox organizaion has held steady as both his FIP, K/BB, and HR/9 rates remained almost identical from short season to full season baseball in spite of a gaudy .350 BABIP. Jobbed out of a spot on Baseball America’s “Sally” top 20, Pimentel will enter 2010 as one of the five best starting pitching prospects in the organization.

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Physique and Athleticism – Listed at 6’3″, 165 lbs., I’d venture to say Pimentel was closer to 185 in season. However, it was a softer 185 as his frame lacked muscle tone. At 19, he obviously has plenty of time to add size, leaving significant projection as he fills out. Like other pitchers who wear uniforms a size or two too big, the “pajama uniform” look Pimentel employs makes it difficult to really size him up from a physical standpoint.

Mound Presence – In allowing ten base runners in five innings pitched, Pimentel navigated out of tough spots nearly every inning. On the mound, he played the part of focused and unflappable well beyond his years. However, his ability to bare down when in trouble was off set by an inability to locate his fastball early in the count. In leaving a number of first pitch fastballs up and over the plate, Sand Gnats hitters were able to pepper the ball back up the middle on multiple occasions.

Fastball – In watching Pimentel warm up before the game, I openly wondered if the low 90′s velocity I came to see was a realistic expectation. I didn’t see the ball explode out of his hand in the bullpen and it carried over into his pre-game mound warm up. 79-78-79 on the stadium gun while warming up and I could not help but wonder if I was in for disappointment. Then the first pitch….pffft….90 MPH and Pimentel was in business. The explosion I was expecting to see was there with a free and easy arm action which left room for more in the way of velocity. In the first, Pimental sat at 90-92 MPH consistently and effectively mixed in his curve ball. In the second his velocity dipped to 87-90 MPH and he was toppping out at 88 MPH by the fifth.

Most, if not all of Pimentel’s hits allowed were off of the fastball. The pitch lacked movement and was left up in the zone on a number of occasions. Without significant movement, or pinpoint command, I can not consider the offering more than average at this point with room for growth.

Curve Ball – Consistently in the 72-75 MPH range, the pitch flashed plus and was a couple of ticks away from being considered a true wipe out offering. When kept low, the bottom simply dropped out of the pitch and he did not hesitate to throw it when behind in the count. I’ve read reports of his leaving the pitch up at times, but I did not see it on this occasion. He showed plus command and was able to keep the ball down and away to right-handed hitters at will.

Change Up – One of his more memorable pitches of the outing came on a 79 MPH change to strikeout Mets prospect Sean Ratliff. He left the pitch up in the zone early, but his command improved throughout the outing. Like his fastball, the pitch lacked movement, but the velocity difference between the fastball and change was where it should be.

With three passable pitches and significant room for growth, Pimentel has both a high ceiling and floor. At 19, he ranks as one of the better pitching prospects in the “Sally” and could move from borderline top 10 prospect in the Red Sox organization to the fast track with improved fastball command. Sure he continues to fly under the radar, but I’m sure the Red Sox organization knows Pimentel is the best value to pass through the organization in quite awhile.

The third and final piece to the top 20 puzzle are the omissions who could have been included. Baseball America’s “Sally” top 20 included a number of early 20′s talents which led to the exclusion of a handful of worthy teens. Let’s look at a few.

As a side note, I found it interesting Anthony Rizzo and Chase D’Arnaud were 12th and 13th on the Carolina League top 20 after graduating from the “Sally”. With the Carolina list being stronger than what the “Sally” had to offer, their exclusion is interesting to say the least.

Kyle Allen, SP, Mets – Over his last ten starts, Allen posted a 2.37 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched. For the season, his GA/AO of 2.18 was also impressive. When a number of young pitchers were tiring, Allen was just hitting his stride. With improved command, he could be a top 100 prospect by this time next season.

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Jay Austin, OF, Astros – In seeing him versus fellow top 20 omission Jeurys Familia, Austin carried Lexington to victory. His .267/.320/.360 line with 23 stolen bases is not uber-impressive on the surface, but he played the season as an 18-year old whose line was better than league average.

Xavier Avery, OF, Orioles – Avery’s full season debut was relatively successful considering his game was considered extremely raw. With a .262/.306/.340 line and 75% stolen base success rate, he was smart enough to play to his strengths offensively by working the ball back up the middle.

Delta Cleary, OF, Rockies – At .256/.315/.376, the 20-year old Cleary was one of the top five athletes in the league. Still remarkably raw, he would have been a daring top 20 pick based on ceiling, but with that ceiling comes the high possibility of his flaming out.

Randall Delgado, SP, Braves – In his last 55 innings pitched, his 65/9 K/BB ratio has made him a darling of prospect followers looking for a 2010 breakout candidate. While I was not able to catch him in person, his peripherals suggest he has one of the higher ceilings in the “Sally”.

Jeurys Familia, SP, Mets – Another Mets pitching prospect who only improved as the season wore on, Familia posted a 2.17 ERA over his last ten starts with close to a strikeout per inning. With the best fastball I saw this season combining top flight velocity and boring movement, he’s a “must rank” in my book.

Stolmy Pimentel, SP, Red Sox – With a 92 MPH fastball, curveball which flashed plus, and room to grow, Pimentel was impressive. Yes, he gave up more hits than innings pitched, but as his fastball command within the zone improves, his peripherals should as well.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Red Sox – The best pure first base prospect in the league, Rizzo ranked in the top 15 on Ben Badler’s Carolina League top 20. With a good glove, hit tool, and power which could develop, his omission is highly questionable considering the Carolina League had far more elite level players in 2009 than did the “Sally”.

I could list a number of other players, but wanted to stick to players I’ve seen in person (minus Randall Delgado). Who else do you feel was a major omission? Why?

To build on part one of breaking down Baseball America’s “Sally” rankings, part two will focus on prospects eleven through twenty.

While I did not see Rudy Owens in person, a 21-year old lefty with a plus change is going to have success in the “Sally”. Kudos to Owens on a great season, but there were too many successful teen arms in the league this year who were not included for me to rank Owens on the cusp of the top ten.

Tony Sanchez being ranked outside of the top 10 is beyond me. At a premium position, his slugging dwarfed that of fellow 2009 draft pick Jared Mitchell and he did it with a much lower BABIP. I would place him in the top eight.

No argument on Anthony Gose’s ranking. I’m just not sure how Gose can be ranked so high and other premium outfield athletes such as Xavier Avery, Robbie Grossman, and Jay Austin can completely be ignored. It was a great year for “toolsy” outfielders.

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Tim Federowicz was a personal favorite and I’m still kicking myself for waiting so long to complete a write up on him. I really liked his all-around game, and could see a ranking between 18-20. However, his being ranked ahead of fellow catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud is a bit of a “head scratcher“. Yes, Fed put up gaudy offensive totals before his promotion, but he is a year and a half older than D’Arnaud and I’m not sure that was considered.

Speaking of Travis D’Arnaud, he was the most impressive offensive player I saw this season. He’s a plus defender with 20-25 home run potential and could be a perennial all-star type catcher. Numbers be damned, he was a surefire top ten player to me.

At 15, Dexter Carter became a family favorite the minute he threw my son his warm up ball before shutting out the Savannah Sand Gnats for eight innings. On a night I should have been blown away, I saw a fringe starter who could very well wind up in the bullpen. He’s a tall righty with some projection left even as a college draftee, but his current repertoire is almost identical to Red Sox prospect Stolmy Pimentel who is a full three years his junior.

I’m fine with Barnese at number 16, but his numbers are virtually identical to Mets prospects Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen. I missed Barnese this season due to a rain out, but Familia’s 92-94 heater with plus movement was the best fastball I saw this season.

By peripherals alone, Alexander Perez of the Indians seems a few spots too low. A lefty with those numbers and room to fill out sounds as exciting as ninth ranked Manuel Banuelos.

Unfortunately, Trevor May’s start added to my list of missed prospects due to rain out (Friedrich, Barnese). I did see him in the pen though and he was impressive. He has the build and repertoire of a workhorse. Speaking of workhorse, Knapp and May seem similar in many ways. However, one is seventh and the other nineteenth.

Last, and maybe most controversial, Melky Mesa and his .225/.309/.423 line completed Baseball America’s top twenty. When playing back my notes from my first time watching him play, my first thought was, “Who is this guy? Look him up when you get home”. If I remember correctly, he homered, hit a single to the right side, showed off a plus arm, and made a diving catch in right field. I left the game thoroughly impressed, but returned home to learn he was 22. In “Sally” years, that’s pretty ancient for a prospect. Would I argue if he was named a sleeper? No! However, I can run off a number other worthy names who are two to three years younger whose numbers were more impressive.

With Baseball America’s track record pegging top prospects in the Sally, it’s difficult for me to pen a piece like this in which I’m forced to go against quite a bit of their recently released South Atlantic League top 20 prospects list. Maybe I’m a bit pretentious, but I was able to see a number of these players in person and was left scratching my head at a number of picks and omissions. In this three-part piece, I’ll break down the top 20 based on who I’ve seen and will discuss prospects who could have or should have also been included. To begin, let’s discuss the top ten rankings and who is or isn’t ranked accurately based on both first hand accounts and collected information.

B.A. nailed picks one and two as I have no argument with Martin Perez and Casey Kelly taking the top two spots respectively. Casey Kelly was hands down the best starting pitcher I saw in the Sally this season and should be the first 2008 high school player to reach the major leagues. While I missed Perez by a day when Hickory passed through Savannah, his numbers at such a young age simply can not be denied. He was the most dominant force in the Sally hands down.

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I’d swap Matt Moore with Jordan Lyles based on command, but both definitely deserve to be ranked in the top 6. In seeing Tim Beckham in person, I would rank Lyles ahead of Beckham. Beckham was not as good as advertised and is ranked number five based on pedigree alone.

No arguments with Derek Norris at number four. His numbers were head and shoulders better than offensive players of equivalent age. He was a man among boys in a league which was extremely pitching heavy.

A friend of mine spoke with Jason Knapp’s pitching coach during his time with Lakewood who commented Knapp is a surefire innings eating mid-rotation starter. His peripherals in the “Sally” were dominating, but shoulder surgery at 19 and question marks surrounding his delivery leave me questioning his placement. Knapp’s surgery would keep him on the periphery, but out of my top 10.

Albeit a small sample, Jared Mitchell’s K% of 34.8% is troubling. I can’t argue with a top twenty ranking based on potential, but his BABIP was .453. When you look inside the numbers, his debut was not nearly the smashing success some are making it out to be.

Let me preface this paragraph on Manuel Banuelos by saying he’s an excellent young pitcher. Behind Casey Kelly, he would definitely be in the conversation for the second best pitcher I saw in person this season. However, also in contention would be Kyle Allen (Mets), Jeurys Familia (Mets), and Stolmy Pimentel (Red Sox). I’m in complete agreement Banuelos should be included, but he’s not good enough to have separated himself the way Baseball America has him ranked.

Wilmer Flores is the final player in Baseball America’s top ten. In watching his growth during the 2009 season, I’m convinced he has the ability to be an above average big league hitter. Where he plays defensively, nobody is sure. However, his arm strength and footwork improved greatly throughout the season and his hands, both offensively and defensively are far and away his best tool.

The one omission from the top 10 which really gets me is Travis D’Arnaud. He was the best “Sally” hitter I saw this season and is a player I would take over any offensive player in the top ten not named Norris. Yes, this includes Tim Beckham. At a premium position, D’Arnaud has the potential to do it all. I’ll be discussing him more in part two.

With my polishing off a scouting piece on Red Sox prospect Will Middlebrooks today, I am not going to be able to pen another full piece before going back to work tomorrow so I wanted to begin to share some raw data from the 2009 Sally season for readers to feast on. To start, here is a list of of the top in terms of max velocity read off of radar guns this season. Any surprises?

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1. Wilmer Font, RHP, Rangers – 96 MPH
T2. Robert Carson, LHP, Mets – 94 MPH
T2. Yeliar Castro, RHP, Braves – 94 MPH
T2 – Jeurys Familia, RHP, Mets – 94 MPH
T2 – Dan Kapala, RHP, Yankees – 94 MPH
T2 – Elvin Ramirez, RHP, Mets – 94 MPH
T2 – Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves – 94 MPH
T3 – Kyle Allen, RHP, Mets – 93 MPH
T3 – Eric Beaulac, RHP, Mets – 93 MPH
T3 – Andrew Brackman, RHP, Yankees – 93 MPH
T3 – JJ Hoover, RHP, Braves – 93 MPH
T3 – Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers – 93 MPH

Other Notables

Manuel Banuelos, LHP, Yankees – 91 MPH
Dexter Carter, RHP, Padres – 92 MPH
Brett DeVall, LHP, Braves – 86 MPH
Casey Kelly, RHP, Red Sox – 90 MPH
Mike Minor, LHP, Braves – 91 MPH
Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Red Sox – 92 MPH
Bryan Price, RHP, Indians – 91 MPH
Ross Seaton, RHP, Astros – 90 MPH
Joseph Wieland, RHP, Rangers – 90 MPH